工业硅期货早报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, supply production scheduling has increased, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8920 - 9190. For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continues to decrease, overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50430 - 52300 [6][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include cost - upward support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. Negative factors include slow post - holiday demand recovery and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week, indicating a rise in demand [6]. - Inventory: Crystalline silicon inventory is 204,000 tons, at a low level; silicone inventory is 73,200 tons, at a high level; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 71,400 tons, at a high level. Social inventory increased by 0.74% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 7.11% week - on - week, and major port inventory increased by 0.84% week - on - week [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3,050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Price and Basis: On September 25th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 245 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Market Indicators: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has risen, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8920 - 9190 [6]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production of polysilicon was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 36.53% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the production of silicon wafers was 13.78 GW, a 1.00% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 162,300 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components has increased [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Cost and Profit: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,900 yuan/ton [8]. - Price and Basis: On September 25th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,185 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [8]. - Market Indicators: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The net long position of the main contract increased [8]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling continues to decrease, overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later, cost support remains stable, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50430 - 52300 [8]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: The prices of most futures contracts increased slightly, and the social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory showed different trends of increase or decrease. The production and cost - profit indicators of organic silicon and aluminum alloy also changed to some extent [14]. - Polysilicon: The prices of most futures contracts decreased slightly, the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, and the inventory decreased [16]. 3.4 Other Aspects - Price and Basis Trends: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, as well as the price trends of polysilicon disks [18][22]. - Inventory Trends: It presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the inventory trends of polysilicon [25][16]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises are shown, including the production of different regions and specifications [26]. - Cost Trends: The cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions are presented, including Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [33]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of different types of silicon [35][38]. - Downstream Market: The market conditions of industrial silicon downstream industries, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, are analyzed, covering aspects such as price, production, inventory, and import - export [41][51][59].