建信期货铝日报-20250926

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The aluminum industry chain generally strengthened due to the sharp rise in copper prices. Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher and moved upward, but the main contract 2511 closed down 0.39% at 20,765. The spread between October and November changed from flat to a slight discount of -5, and the far - month maintained a slight contango structure. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around -1,500 yuan/ton [8]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the spot price of downstream alumina is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has little short - term change. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the election in Guinea [8]. - Alumina rose 1.66% during the day. The disturbance news from the Boke mine in Guinea was more of an emotional stimulus, and the substantial impact was temporarily limited. The low - cost support of alumina was prominent [8]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continued to follow Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the tight supply of scrap aluminum raw materials, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long AD and short AL [8]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. On Thursday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 2.1 to 61.7 tons compared with last Thursday. With the decline in the absolute price and the pre - holiday stocking demand of aluminum processing enterprises, the previous inventory accumulation pressure began to ease. Shanghai aluminum returned to the previous oscillation range, and the support below continued to focus on the 20,500 level [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, with the main contract 2511 closing down 0.39%. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around -1,500 yuan/ton [8]. - The production situation of domestic bauxite in the north and the price trends of bauxite and alumina were analyzed, and attention was paid to the mining rights policy in Guinea [8]. - Alumina rose during the day, and its low - cost support was prominent. The trend of cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, and a trading strategy was proposed [8]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and the support level of Shanghai aluminum was pointed out [8]. 2. Industry News - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. The IPO will test international investors' attitude towards Middle Eastern aluminum assets and consolidate the UAE's position in the aluminum supply chain [9][10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan remained at about 2.091 billion cans, the same as the previous year and remaining at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [10]. - On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched, with a total registration volume of 3,878 tons on the first day [10].