Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After a significant rebound, the increase of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures has narrowed. Considering the expected anti-involution policies and the structural nature of steel production cuts, the raw material side is expected to provide support. It is predicted that the steel market will experience a secondary rebound after a period of consolidation from late September to early October. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of finished product profits and the market changes brought about by the willingness of steel mills and coking plants to replenish raw material inventories [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market: On September 25, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures fluctuated within a range, with closing prices slightly higher than the previous day. The RB2601 contract closed at 3167 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the HC2601 contract closed at 3358 yuan/ton, up 0.24%; the SS2511 contract closed at 12930 yuan/ton, up 0.19% [5]. - Spot Market: On September 25, the price of rebar in the Xi'an market increased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other major rebar markets remained basically stable. Prices in major hot-rolled coil markets were also stable [7]. - Technical Indicators: The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2601 contract formed a death cross, and that of the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract continued to decline. The daily MACD red bars of both the rebar 2601 and hot-rolled coil 2601 contracts have been narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [7]. 3.2 Future Outlook - Supply and Demand: As of this week, the weekly output of the five major steel products rebounded after three consecutive weeks of decline, demand reached a new low since early March and rebounded for three consecutive weeks, and the social inventory of the five major steel products declined from a new high since late April [8]. - Raw Material Market: As of last week, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills rebounded after three consecutive weeks of decline, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore of 64 sample steel mills significantly rebounded after reaching a new low since late June, indicating that steel mills have replenished their stocks. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil significantly declined to a new low since late February, and the decline in the arrival volume was relatively small. Considering the lag effect of shipping volume on arrival volume, the recent significant decline in shipping volume will be reflected in the arrival volume in the next few weeks. The profit per ton of coke has been profitable for five consecutive weeks, and the spot price of coke turned up again on September 24. The coke inventories of coking plants and steel mills are generally low, and there is limited room for the spot price of coke to decline in the future. It is unlikely that domestic coal mines will significantly increase production after approaching the completion of long-term contract tasks [9]. 3.3 Industry News - Domestic News: In 2025, the country plans to start the renovation of 25,000 urban old communities. From January to August, 21,700 urban old communities have started renovation. From January to August, the national railway completed a freight volume of 3.467 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. The national railway fixed asset investment completed 504.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. In mid-September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a daily output decrease of 0.6% month-on-month; 19.1 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.91 million tons, a daily output increase of 0.7% month-on-month; 20.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.061 million tons, a daily output increase of 5.4% month-on-month. At the end of mid-September, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.29 million tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons from the previous ten days, a decrease of 3.4%. The world's largest coal-fired power carbon capture demonstration project in Huaneng Gansu Zhengning Power Plant was officially put into operation, with an annual carbon dioxide capture capacity of 1.5 million tons [10]. - International News: In August 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. BHP recently approved an investment of A$1.4 billion to upgrade its infrastructure in Port Hedland, Western Australia. From January to July 2025, Russian coal companies had a net loss of 225 billion rubles, much higher than the loss of 3.1 billion rubles in the same period last year. India's coal demand is expected to increase to about 1.6 billion tons by 2030 [11]. 3.4 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the weekly output of the five major steel products, steel mill inventory, social inventory,开工率 and utilization rate of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and January contracts [15][16][21][26][28][35].
建信期货钢材日评-20250926
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-26 02:15