建信期货镍日报-20250926

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The net surplus pressure of pure nickel still exists, but at the current position, it is also difficult to decline significantly due to the support of nickel ore and cost. Recently, the prices of NPI and nickel sulfate are relatively strong. Continue to pay attention to the supply-side news from Indonesia. The reference for the bottom support of Shanghai nickel has been slightly raised to the 120,000 level [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: The main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) rose 1.08% to 122,990 compared to the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 20 to 2,300. The average price of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 to 955 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 50 to 28,200 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: Indonesia will start the 2026 approval work in October. The adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the supply of the ore end at the beginning of next year. Some smelters may stock up on nickel ore in advance in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will not decline significantly this year and may rise slightly. NPI remains strong due to cost support and the expectation of demand recovery, but the improvement space for the stainless steel terminal is limited, and the subsequent upward space may be restricted. The demand for stockpiling before the double festivals supports the price of nickel salts to remain strong [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Congo's Cobalt Export Ban: The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months. The decision is to allow the cobalt price to recover further and to have more time to implement the quota framework. The decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. If the ban is extended, it is expected to drive up the MHP cobalt coefficient and keep the smelting enterprises' inventory below the safety level [8][10] - Indonesia's Mining Crackdown: Indonesia's forest law enforcement task force will conduct a centralized crackdown on illegal mines. The country is a major producer of coal, nickel, tin, and copper, as well as the largest exporter of palm oil [10] - FPX Nickel's Sustainability Initiatives: FPX Nickel has joined the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and the United Nations Global Compact, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development [10]