大越期货PVC期货早报-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4905 - 4965. The market is affected by multiple factors, including supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and export trends [9][13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Likely Positive Factors: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [13] - Likely Negative Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13] - Main Logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [7] 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 39.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 76.92%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 72.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [7][8] 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 30.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2349.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.40%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Other Aspects - Basis: On September 25, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 135 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11] - Inventory: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% [11] - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [11] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9]