大越期货沥青期货早报-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is still high, while the demand - side recovery is weak. High - price goods have insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The profit of asphalt processing losses has decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profits has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. The current demand is below the historical average, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. It is predicted that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3419 - 3461 [7][9][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise shipments were 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated device maintenance volume was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries reduced production this week to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7] - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7] - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profits decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [7] - Basis: On September 25th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 60 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [7] - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - factory inventory was 653,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 240,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. The social, in - factory, and port inventories are all continuously decreasing [7] - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal [7] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased, which is a bearish signal [7] - Expectation: Refineries have recently reduced production to relieve supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish, and the inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3419 - 3461 [7] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the price, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts, including price changes, inventory changes, production changes, and profit changes. For example, the price of the 01 contract increased by 1.76% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 2.88% [14] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [19][20] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [22][23] - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [25][26][27] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [29][31] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to understand the price changes of asphalt in different regions [32][33] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [34][35] - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39] - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the supply situation of asphalt [41][42] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [43][44] - Production: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the production situation of asphalt [46][47] - Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report shows the historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [50][52] - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the historical production trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of local refineries [53][54] - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production capacity utilization situation of asphalt [56][57] - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the impact of maintenance on asphalt production [58][59] - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of the exchange [61][62][63] - Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of the asphalt market [65][66] - In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical trends of in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the inventory management situation of factories [68][69] - Import and Export Situation: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the import and export situation of asphalt [71][72] - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the historical production trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the demand situation of petroleum coke [77][78] - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the overall demand situation of asphalt [80][81] - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the demand situation of asphalt in highway construction [83][84] - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the impact of policies on asphalt demand [85] - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the demand situation of asphalt in downstream machinery [87][88][90] - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93] - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use: The report shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of asphalt for different uses [95][96] - Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation: The report shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the capacity utilization situation of downstream industries [98][99][101] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand situation of asphalt [103][104]