Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals, container shipping indices, and multiple commodity futures (such as non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals). It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector, with a view to guiding investors to make decisions based on the current market situation and future trends [1]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: TMT led the market, with most stock index futures rising. The basis of the four major stock index futures contracts was deeply discounted. The market was affected by domestic and overseas news, and the trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 when the index pulls back [2][3][4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: MLF was incrementally renewed, and treasury bond futures generally showed an oscillating trend. The central bank's monetary policy showed a moderately loose orientation, but the improvement of inter - bank market liquidity was limited. It is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to fast - in and fast - out, and also participate in the basis narrowing strategy of the TL contract [5][7][8]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The US government faced a shutdown risk, and the economy and inflation were relatively resilient. Silver reached a new high due to its industrial attributes. Gold maintained a high - level oscillation. In the future, the Fed's policy path will suppress the US dollar index, and the political situation in Europe and the United States will increase the demand for precious metals as a hedge. It is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and maintain a bullish view on silver [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot freight rates of shipping companies were provided, and the SCFIS European line index declined. The futures price rose, and CMA raised its November price. It is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Grasberg mine disturbances increased supply concerns, and copper prices remained high. The macro - market was affected by the Fed's interest rate cut, and the supply side was affected by the mine accident. Although the short - term demand was suppressed, the long - term supply - demand contradiction supported the price. It is recommended to hold long positions [16][17][20]. - Alumina: The market was in a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The price was under pressure, but the cost support limited the downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost - profit change and Guinea's policy [20][21][23]. - Aluminum: The social inventory showed a turning point, and the fundamentals improved marginally under the support of the peak season effect and stocking demand. The aluminum price was expected to oscillate at a high level after a pullback [24][25][26]. - Aluminum Alloy: The disk oscillated, and the pre - holiday stocking demand supported the spot price. The supply was tight, the cost was high, and the demand recovered moderately. It is recommended to consider arbitrage operations [26][27][28]. - Zinc: The social inventory decreased during the peak season, and the price was expected to oscillate. The supply was loose, and the demand showed differentiation at home and abroad [29][30][32]. - Tin: The import of tin ore remained low in August, and the supply supported the price. The demand was weak, and the market was in a tight - balance situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [32][33][35]. - Nickel: The non - ferrous metal sector boosted the intraday market, and the fundamentals changed little. The supply was high, and the demand was stable in some sectors and weak in others. The price was expected to oscillate within a range [36][37][38]. - Stainless Steel: The disk oscillated and rose slightly. The raw material prices were firm, and the cost provided support. The supply increased, and the demand improvement was not obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to the steel mill's dynamics and inventory digestion [39][40][41]. - Lithium Carbonate: The sector sentiment drove the disk to strengthen slightly, and the fundamentals were in a tight - balance during the peak season. The supply increased marginally, the demand was optimistic, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to expect the price to oscillate within a range [42][43][44]. Black Metals - Steel: Steel exports supported the black metal valuation, and the steel price continued to oscillate. The cost had support, the supply was at a high level, and the demand showed seasonal fluctuations. It is recommended to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand [46][47]. - Iron Ore: The supply and demand of iron ore showed a slight improvement, but it was still insufficient in the peak season. The supply was affected by shipping and arrival, and the demand was supported by high - level hot metal production. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and conduct arbitrage operations [48][50]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market was strong, and the downstream replenishment demand supported the price. The supply increased as mines resumed production, and the demand recovered with the increase in hot metal production. It is recommended to go short on the 2601 contract at high prices and conduct arbitrage operations [51][53][54]. - Coke: The main coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the price increase space might be limited. The supply decreased due to cost pressure, and the demand was supported by the increase in hot metal production. It is recommended to go short on the 2601 contract at high prices and conduct arbitrage operations [55][56]. Agricultural Products - Meal: Argentina restarted the export tax, but China had purchased many ships of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the near - month price was under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread might continue to weaken [57][58][60].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-26 02:46