Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to be volatile. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with a weak demand compared to previous years, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and a net short position of the main contract. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, with a weak demand, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and an increasing net short position of the main contract [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating. The agricultural film market is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film market is mainly driven by rigid demand. The downstream operating rate has increased, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of the LLDPE delivery product is 7130 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -39, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The disk of the LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PE market will be volatile today [4]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The downstream market is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic woven products is stable. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6750 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -148, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.1%, which is bearish [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The disk of the PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for downstream products is stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PP market will be volatile today [6]. Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7130, up 10; the price of the 01 contract is 7169, up 27; the basis is -39, down 17; the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 509,000 tons, down 42,000; and the PE social inventory is 535,000 tons, down 12,000 [9]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6750, unchanged; the price of the 01 contract is 6898, up 21; the basis is -148, down 21; the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons, down 30,000; and the PP social inventory is 286,000 tons, up 3,000 [9]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, and the import dependence has decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250926
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-26 03:03