Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For corn, the report suggests maintaining a bearish outlook in the medium to long term. The USDA expects a record - high US corn production in the 2025/26 season and a seven - year high in ending stocks. With the progress of US corn harvest, supply pressure will increase. Domestically, new corn is coming onto the market, but downstream demand is weak, and processing enterprises' losses are intensifying, which restricts the price [8]. - For corn starch, the report also recommends a medium - to - long - term bearish view. The market is weak, and enterprises are in a loss state. Although pre - holiday demand has slightly improved and inventory has declined, the inventory is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing the market demand, restricting the price [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - Strategy: Maintain a bearish view in the medium to long term [7][11] - Market Review: This week, the corn futures closed slightly higher. The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2178 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - Market Outlook: The USDA report shows high US production and stocks. Domestic new corn is on the market, but demand is weak, and processing enterprises' losses are increasing [8] Corn Starch - Strategy: Maintain a bearish view in the medium to long term [11] - Market Review: Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher at a low level. The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous week [12] - Market Outlook: The market is weak, enterprises are in loss, inventory has declined but is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing demand [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - Corn: The November contract of corn futures fluctuated slightly higher, with a total position of 692,516 lots, down 119,319 lots from last week [16] - Corn Starch: The November contract of corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher, with a total position of 167,095 lots, down 41,035 lots from last week [16] Top 20 Net Position Changes - Corn: This week, the top 20 net position of corn futures was - 48,213, compared with - 4,758 last week, and the net short position increased [23] - Corn Starch: This week, the top 20 net position of starch futures was - 38,910, compared with - 43,805 last week, and the net short position decreased [23] Futures Warehouse Receipts - Corn: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 21,814 [29] - Corn Starch: The registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 8,189 [29] Spot Price and Basis - Corn: As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,364.9 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active November contract and the spot average price was + 196 yuan/ton [35] - Corn Starch: The spot price in Jilin was 2,800 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,900 yuan/ton, with a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the November contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 320 yuan/ton [40] Futures Inter - month Spread - Corn: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was + 18 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [46] - Corn Starch: The 11 - 1 spread of starch was + 39 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [46] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 302 yuan/ton. In the 39th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 360 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton from last week [56] Substitute Spread - As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,436.06 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2,364.9 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 71.16 yuan/ton. In the 39th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 265 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from last week [60] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - Supply - Port Inventory: As of September 19, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 30.8 tons, down 29.3 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 6.7 tons, up 6.7 tons from last week. The inventory of the four northern ports was 67.5 tons, down 5.4 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 22.4 tons, down 9.7 tons week - on - week [50] - Import: In August 2025, the import volume of ordinary corn was 40,000 tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons (90.70%) compared with the same period last year and a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with last month [69] - Feed Enterprise Inventory: As of September 25, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.01 days, down 0.15 days from last week, a week - on - week decline of 0.57% and a year - on - year decline of 6.94% [73] Corn - Demand - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000, 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million [77] - Breeding Profit: As of September 19, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was - 24.44 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 199.31 yuan/head [81] - Processing Profit: As of September 25, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 165 yuan/ton; the corn alcohol processing profit was 25 yuan/ton in Henan, - 659 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 254 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [86] Corn Starch - Supply - Enterprise Inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.118 million tons, a decrease of 9.49% [90] - Production and Inventory: From September 18 to 24, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 534,600 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 260,500 tons, an increase of 11,400 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 50.36%, an increase of 2.2%. As of September 24, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.139 million tons, a decrease of 61,000 tons from last week, a weekly decline of 5.08%, a monthly decline of 13.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.85% [96] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of September 26, the implied volatility of the corn main 2511 contract was 10.41%, up 0.20% from 10.21% last week. The implied volatility fluctuated and rebounded this week, at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [99]
玉米类市场周报：新季玉米上市增加，期价维持底部震荡-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:45