生猪市场周报：供需偏松，关注节前仓位变动-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs remains under pressure as large - scale farms continue to sell and smallholders are also actively selling large pigs. Although demand has improved marginally due to cooler temperatures, price drops, and approaching holidays, the increase in demand is less than that in supply. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, which constrains prices. However, with the current price at a relatively low level and high positions held, there is a risk of price fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position changes. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - Market Performance: The price of live pigs continued to decline, with the main contract 2511 falling 1.95% weekly [7][11]. - Market Outlook: Supply is sufficient while demand growth is limited, keeping the supply - demand pattern loose. Pre - holiday position changes may cause price fluctuations. Reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures are recommended [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price Movement: The futures price fell, with the main contract 2511 down 1.95% for the week [7][11]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: The net short position increased, and there were 298 futures warehouse receipts, 130 less than last week. As of September 26, the net short position of the top 20 holders was 28,375 lots, up 2,571 lots from last week [13][17]. - Contract Spreads: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 445, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was 50 [21]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Live Pig and Piglet Prices: The national average price of live pigs was 12.77 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from last week and 8.33% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 25.38 yuan/kg, down 2.62 yuan/kg from last week and 10.57% from last month [35]. - Pork and Sow Prices: The national pork market price was 24.51 yuan/kg in the week of September 18, down 0.19 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.50 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [39]. - Pig - Grain Ratio: As of the week of September 17, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.81, down 0.09 from the previous week [43]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Sow Inventory: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million, down 10,000 from the previous month and 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. In August, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month [48]. - Live Pig Inventory: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, up 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In August, the live pig inventory in large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.49% month - on - month [54]. - Slaughter Volume and Average Weight: In August, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased by 2.56% month - on - month, and that of small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.44% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight was 123.47 kg, down 0.04 kg from last week [59]. 3.3.2. Industry Profitability - Live Pig Farming: As of September 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for farming was 236.57 yuan/head, an increase of 37.25 yuan/head. The loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 74.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 49.66 yuan/head [64]. - Poultry Farming: As of September 26, the profit of laying hens was 0.11 yuan/bird, down 0.06 yuan/bird week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.40 yuan/bird [64]. 3.3.3. Domestic Market - Pork Imports: In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, with a monthly average of 88,750 tons. In August, the import volume was 80,000 tons, down 11.11% year - on - year [65][69]. 3.3.4. Substitute Products - White - Striped Chicken Price: As of the week of September 26, the price of white - striped chicken was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week [72]. - Standard - Fat Price Difference: As of the week of September 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.39 yuan/kg, 0.39 yuan/kg less than last week [72]. 3.3.5. Feed Market - Feed Prices: As of September 26, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,019.71 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of corn was 2,365.29 yuan/ton, up 4.9 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - Feed Index and Price: As of September 26, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 894.31, down 0.56% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [83]. - Feed Output: In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, up 999,000 tons month - on - month. The sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and 0.74% year - on - year [87]. 3.3.6. CPI - As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [91]. 3.3.7. Downstream Market - Slaughtering Enterprises: In the 39th week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 32.82%, up 1.05 percentage points from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.65%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week [94]. - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million, up 5.32% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44.957 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [99]. 3.4. Live Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [100][103].