Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 11,600 in the short - term [7]. - The prices of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market in China showed a narrow and weak oscillation this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,450 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable [8]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. The overall supply of cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. The external supply of raw material butadiene has increased this week, and there is a lack of positive factors in terms of cost and supply. Some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of resources from Sinopec and PetroChina will be lowered. The inventory of producers has slightly increased, while that of traders has decreased. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream terminals may gradually pick up goods, and the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly [8]. - This week, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels to appropriately stock up for post - holiday inventory. The overall operation was mainly adjusted slightly. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance state in advance due to insufficient orders. It is reported that some enterprises plan to start a 5 - 8 - day holiday on September 30 or October 1, which will have a significant impact on the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises next week [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 11,600 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The prices of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a narrow and weak oscillation, with the spot price ranging from 11,450 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable, with the mainstream ex - factory price ranging from 11,700 to 11,800 yuan/ton as of September 25, 2025 [8]. - Market outlook: Supply is sufficient, cost and supply lack positive factors, producer inventory has slightly increased, and trader inventory has decreased. As the holiday approaches, downstream terminals may pick up goods, and overall enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly. Tire enterprises mostly maintained previous operating levels, with overall slight adjustments. Some small - scale enterprises entered holiday maintenance in advance, which will impact next week's capacity utilization rate [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.13% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided other than the topic of "cis - butadiene rubber top 20 position changes". - Inter - delivery spread: As of September 26, the spread between the 11th and 12th contracts of butadiene rubber was 20 [18]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of September 26, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,670 tons, an increase of 60 tons from last week [21]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of September 25, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - Basis: As of September 25, the basis of butadiene rubber was 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of September 25, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 608.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.58 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - Butadiene capacity utilization and port inventory: As of September 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48% from last week, and the port inventory was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons from last week [31]. 3.3.2. Industry - Cis - butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization: In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month. As of September 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.32% from last week [34]. - Production profit: As of September 25, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,420 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons from last week [41]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire operating rate: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Currently, tire enterprises mostly maintain previous operating levels [44]. - Tire exports: In August 2025, China's tire exports were 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, the cumulative tire exports were 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [47]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis No relevant content provided.
合成橡胶市场周报-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:40