沪铅市场周报：联储议息市场消化，金九银十检验需求-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures being active but falling 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - On the supply side, some primary lead smelting enterprises in certain regions entered the centralized maintenance stage, causing the primary lead output to continue to decline. The raw material market is in a tight - balance state, with lead concentrate processing fees continuously decreasing and mostly sold on a pre - sale basis, increasing the cost for smelters to obtain raw materials and further restricting primary lead output. For recycled lead, affected by environmental inspections and the decline in waste battery recycling efficiency, the release of recycled lead production capacity has slowed down. There is not much inventory of waste batteries in the market, and the arrival of goods at smelters is not good. Enterprises mainly focus on fulfilling long - term orders, and the overall operating rate remains low, continuously restricting recycled lead output. However, with the repair of production profits and the increase in the quantity of imported raw materials, some enterprises have the expectation of resuming production, but it is expected to be in early October, having limited impact on next week's supply. Overall, lead supply shows a stable and rising trend [7]. - On the demand side, lead - acid batteries, as the main consumption area of lead, have relatively stable demand for automobile starting batteries. Although the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season is gradually warming up, in reality, when prices rise, spot transactions are average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. After large battery enterprises' procurement gradually ended this week before the National Day, small and medium - sized factories are mostly cautious and have low willingness to receive goods. However, the energy - storage demand in emerging fields shows a good trend, making up for the shortage of demand in traditional fields to a certain extent. But overall, the overall demand has not shown an obvious explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage [7]. - From the domestic and foreign inventory data, both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. The overall inventory decline indicates that demand has driven inventory depletion to a certain extent. The social inventory of domestic lead ingots has declined recently, providing some support for lead prices. However, as the pre - National Day inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises comes to an end, if demand cannot continue to follow up, the subsequent changes in inventory still need to be concerned [7]. - Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. On the supply side, the output of primary lead and recycled lead is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term, providing some support for prices. On the demand side, although the overall performance is average, it will not decline significantly under the background of "Golden September and Silver October" and the drive of emerging energy - storage field demand. The decline in inventory also provides some bottom - line support for prices. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for lead prices [7]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended that the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, and the main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead futures fell 0.41%. After digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut, Shanghai lead generally showed a volatile downward trend [7]. - Market Outlook: Supply is showing a stable and rising trend, while demand is in a slow recovery stage. The overall inventory decline provides some support for lead prices. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [7]. - Operation Suggestion: The main contract 2511 of Shanghai lead mainly fluctuates upward, with a fluctuation range of 16,800 - 17,300 and a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Comparison: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead decreased slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio increased. As of September 25, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was reported at $1,938 per ton, and the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was reported at 17,060 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was reported at 8.71 [9][13]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and the foreign premium and discount strengthened. As of September 25, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was reported at - 110 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was reported at - 36.8 dollars per ton [15][17]. - Inventory: Both foreign and domestic lead inventories are falling, and the number of warehouse receipts is also decreasing. As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of lead was reported at 4.22 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons; the total inventory of LME lead was reported at 219,550 tons, a decrease of 750 tons. The number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was reported at 35,584 tons, a decrease of 13,791 tons [32][36]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - Primary Lead: As of September 18, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 80.56%, a decrease of 0.96% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 0 tons compared with last week [23]. - Recycled Lead: As of September 18, 2025, the domestic output of recycled lead in major production areas was reported at 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the average utilization rate of recycled lead production capacity was reported at 43.63%, a month - on - month increase of 8.78%. Near the Double Festival, the recycling of scrapped batteries increased, and the output increased slightly [27][30]. - Trade: In August 2025, the export volume of refined lead was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The import volume of refined lead was 3,417 tons. The import volume of lead alloy was 12,784 tons. The import volume of lead concentrate was about 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 28.3%. The total import volume of lead ingots was 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons, an increase of 106.70%; a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons, a decrease of 41.98%. Among them, the import volume of refined lead was 3,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons, an increase of 317.07%; a year - on - year decrease of 10,600 tons, a decrease of 75.63%. The import volume of crude lead was 10,030 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,340 tons, an increase of 76.27%; a year - on - year increase of 1,090 tons, an increase of 12.27% [40]. Demand - side - Processing Fees: As of September 18, 2025, the national average processing price of lead concentrate was reported at 370 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC for imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was reported at - 90 dollars per thousand tons. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee declined, and the imported ore processing fee remained flat, which was generally negative for domestic production [43][45]. - Automobile Market: In August 2025, the overall automobile sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. From January to August, the cumulative automobile sales reached 21.128 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%. The sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all showed growth trends. The new - energy vehicle sales in August were 1.395 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.54% and a year - on - year increase of 27%. The new - energy vehicle sales from January to August were 9.62 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of the total new automobile sales in August and 45.5% from January to August. The growth of automobile production and sales is accelerating, and the process of lithium replacing lead is accelerating, leading to a decline in lead demand [47][50]. - Battery Market: As of September 25, 2025, the average price of waste lead electric storage 48V/20AH in Zhejiang was reported at 394 yuan per group, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 19,920 yuan per ton. The battery price remained flat, and the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased [52][55].