油料产业周报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The September USDA report adjusted the US soybean production upwards, the global production downwards, and the US soybean inventory upwards, making the overall report neutral to bearish [7]. - Argentina's cancellation of soybean tariffs to promote exports may lead to a significant increase in domestic imports from November to January, effectively alleviating the supply - tightness expectation due to the lack of US soybean imports [7]. - There is uncertainty regarding Sino - US tariffs, and domestic soybean procurement in November is inactive. Attention should be paid to the arrival quantity of Argentine soybeans later [7]. - Recently, prices have been fluctuating, with a weak oscillation at a low level [7]. - Domestic supply - demand changes are minimal. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in later imports, but there is still uncertainty [7]. - The extension of anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed in China creates uncertainty for future rapeseed imports. As Canada enters the harvest season, attention should be paid to the progress of domestic rapeseed imports [7]. - With low domestic rapeseed inventory and insufficient current import procurement, rapeseed crushing may slow down, which will later affect the supply of domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [7]. - Affected by the import of Argentine soybeans and soybean meal, it may be weakened in the short term [7]. - In the case of soybean oil, soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory - accumulation stage. The demand side is in the off - season, but the National Day peak season may have a positive impact on demand. Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase the direct import of soybean oil in China, putting pressure on the supply of soybean oil. Overall, it maintains a slightly oversupplied pattern with high inventory pressure, but there is support from peak - season demand [38][40]. - For palm oil, the MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the September report is slightly positive. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of the later crude - oil market and biodiesel, as well as the recent impact of crude oil. The domestic inventory - accumulation rate has slowed down, reducing supply - demand pressure. Later, attention should be paid to the inflection point of active inventory accumulation and the de - stocking expectation due to the possible decline in supply in the fourth quarter [40]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the rapeseed sector currently lacks new topics, and China is in a continuous de - stocking cycle. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decline in rapeseed oil supply. Later, attention should be paid to the changes in imports from Russia. Affected by continuous de - stocking, the domestic spot market is strong. With the expectation of reduced imports later, rapeseed oil may strengthen independently compared to other oils [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal - The September USDA report has a neutral - bearish impact on the soybean market, with adjustments to US and global soybean production and inventory [7]. - Argentina's tariff policy may change the domestic soybean import pattern from November to January [7]. - Uncertain Sino - US tariffs affect domestic soybean procurement in November [7]. - Price trends show weak oscillations at a low level [7]. 3.2. Rapeseed Meal - Domestic supply - demand situation changes little, but anti - dumping measures against Canada may affect imports [7]. - Low domestic rapeseed inventory and insufficient procurement may affect rapeseed meal supply [7]. - Impacted by Argentine imports, it may be weakened in the short term [7]. 3.3. Soybean Oil - High - level soybean crushing leads to continuous inventory accumulation [38]. - Off - season demand may be boosted by the National Day peak season [40]. - Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase supply pressure [40]. 3.4. Palm Oil - MPOB report shows less - than - expected inventory accumulation, with a slightly positive September report [40]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of the crude - oil market and biodiesel [40]. - Slowed domestic inventory - accumulation rate eases supply - demand pressure [40]. 3.5. Rapeseed Oil - In a continuous de - stocking cycle with a lack of new topics [40]. - Anti - dumping measures against Canada may reduce supply [40]. - Domestic spot is strong, and it may strengthen independently later [40].