Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - level presents tariff disturbances. In the industry, the production of rebar remains low, demand increases, inventory decreases again, and apparent demand rises. The long - term bullish sentiment is not high, and the cost - side support weakens. Before the holiday, the game between bulls and bears intensifies, and the market may fluctuate. It is recommended to consider low - buying and high - selling in the range of 3075 - 3170 yuan/ton for the RB2601 contract, with a stop - loss of 30 yuan/ton [7]. - Given that the resumption of blast furnaces in steel mills increases and the expectation of supply growth strengthens, but rebar production remains low and inventory pressure is not significant, after the price adjustment, there is still a possibility of a rebound. It is suggested to buy out - of - the - money call options opportunistically [57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary 1.1 Market Review - As of September 26, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3114 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan/ton; the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3320 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [5]. - Rebar production remained at a low level, with a weekly output of 206.46 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons week - on - week and 1 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Apparent demand continued to increase, with a current apparent demand of 220.44 million tons, an increase of 10.41 million tons week - on - week and a decrease of 35.02 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Both factory and social inventories decreased. The total rebar inventory was 6.363 billion tons, a decrease of 0.1398 billion tons week - on - week and an increase of 2.2084 billion tons year - on - year [5]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 39.40 percentage points year - on - year [5]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Macro - level: Overseas, Mexico plans to raise import tariff rates on products from non - FTA partners, and the US may impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks. Domestically, five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a steel industry growth plan, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the steel industry's added value in the next two years [7]. - Supply - demand: Rebar weekly production remained low, with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26% and a continuous decline in the EAF steel operating rate. Terminal demand recovered, inventory declined again, and apparent demand rebounded [7]. - Cost: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated and corrected, with high - level hot metal production, but increased arrivals and port inventories. Coking coal and coke futures prices first rose and then fell. There was pre - holiday restocking demand from downstream, but the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines increased for three consecutive weeks, with an expected increase in supply [7]. - Technical: The RB2601 contract adjusted downward, breaking through the key support of the MA20 moving average. In the short term, it may test the support around 3100/3075. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were below the 0 - axis, and the red bars shrank [7]. - Strategy: Considering the macro - level tariff disturbances, the industry - level low rebar production, increased demand, decreased inventory, and improved apparent demand, along with weakening cost - side support, it is recommended to consider low - buying and high - selling in the range of 3075 - 3170 yuan/ton for the RB2601 contract, with a stop - loss of 30 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets 2.1 Futures Price Trends - This week, the RB2601 contract fluctuated weakly. The RB2510 contract was stronger than the RB2601 contract. On the 26th, the price difference was - 92 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton week - on - week [13]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 278,350 tons, an increase of 16,197 tons week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 futures contract holders was 221,167 lots, an increase of 39,455 lots compared to the previous week [19]. 2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On September 26, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3320 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3302 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price. On the 26th, the basis was 206 yuan/ton, an increase of 78 yuan/ton week - on - week [25]. 3. Upstream Markets 3.1 Raw Material Prices - On September 26, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 851 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [30]. 3.2 Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventories - From September 15 - 21, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2.7504 billion tons, an increase of 0.3581 billion tons month - on - month; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2.675 billion tons, an increase of 0.3127 billion tons month - on - month; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 1.29 billion tons, an increase of 0.045 billion tons month - on - month. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14.55068 billion tons, an increase of 0.169 billion tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.5141 billion tons, an increase of 0.0038 billion tons [34]. 3.3 Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory decreased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.31%, a decrease of 0.04%; the daily coke output was 531,200 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; coke inventory was 395,400 tons, a decrease of 26,700 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 8.5623 billion tons, an increase of 0.5306 billion tons; the available days of coking coal were 12.1 days, an increase of 0.76 days [38]. 4. Industry Conditions 4.1 Supply - side - Crude Steel Production: In August 2025, China's crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to August, the cumulative crude steel production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [42]. - Rebar Production: On September 25, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 2.0646 billion tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons week - on - week and 1 million tons year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, an increase of 0.001% week - on - week and 0.22% year - on - year [44][48]. - EAF Steel Operating Rate: On September 26, the average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 67.36%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 3.54 percentage points year - on - year. The operating rates in the East and South China regions decreased slightly, while the rest remained flat [48]. - Rebar Inventory: On September 25, the in - factory inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.6441 billion tons, a decrease of 0.66 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 36.28 million tons year - on - year. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.7189 billion tons, a decrease of 13.32 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 184.56 million tons year - on - year. The total rebar inventory was 6.363 billion tons, a decrease of 13.98 million tons week - on - week and an increase of 220.84 million tons year - on - year [51]. 4.2 Demand - side - Real Estate: From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 6.0309 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The floor area under construction was 6.43109 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%; the new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%; the completed area was 276.94 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0% [54]. - Infrastructure: From January to August 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) increased by 2.0% year - on - year. Among them, investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5% [54]. 5. Options Market - Given the increase in blast furnace resumptions in steel mills and the strengthening expectation of supply growth, but with low rebar production and relatively low inventory pressure, there is a possibility of a rebound after price adjustment. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options opportunistically [57].
螺纹钢市场周报：市场情绪低迷，螺纹期价承压回落-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:57