Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices with light positions [5]. - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of stable supply and slight increase in demand, and it is recommended to conduct oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina with light positions [6]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slowing supply and increasing demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - term long trading on the main contract of cast aluminum at low prices with light positions [8]. - Considering the subsequent support for aluminum prices, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [73]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - week Summary - Market Review: Shanghai aluminum showed an oscillating trend with a weekly change of - 0.24%, closing at 20,745 yuan/ton; alumina showed an oscillating and weakening trend with a weekly change of - 1.76%, closing at 2,901 yuan/ton; the main contract of cast aluminum showed an oscillating trend with a weekly change of - 0.15%, closing at 20,325 yuan/ton [6][8]. - Market Outlook and Strategy: See the core views above [5][6][8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Price Changes: As of September 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,755 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.12% from September 19; the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,664 US dollars/ton, down 41 US dollars/ton or 1.52% from September 19; the alumina futures price was 2,871 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton or 1.51% from September 19; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,325 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.15% from September 19 [11][15]. - Ratio and Spread Changes: As of September 26, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.79, down 0.05 from September 19; the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,235 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from September 19; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 61,725 yuan/ton, up 2,610 yuan/ton from September 19 [12][23]. - Inventory and Position Changes: As of September 26, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 486,848 lots, down 38,230 lots or 7.28% from September 19; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, up 11,467 lots from September 19 [18]. - Spot Price Changes: As of September 26, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 2.15% from September 19; in Shanxi it was 2,995 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.01% from September 19; in Guiyang it was 2,995 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.01% from September 19; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.24% from September 19; the spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.05% from September 19, with a spot discount of 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [26][30]. 3. Industry Situation - Inventory: As of September 26, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 517,700 tons, up 3,800 tons or 0.74% from September 19; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 124,626 tons, down 3,108 tons or 2.43% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 567,000 tons, down 27,000 tons or 4.55% from September 18; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 63,230 tons, down 8,729 tons or 12.13% from September 19; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts totaled 407,850 tons, up 3,175 tons or 0.78% from September 18 [36]. - Bauxite: As of the latest data, the inventory of nine ports of domestic bauxite was 27.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 170,000 tons. In August 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.2898 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.81% and a year - on - year increase of 18.17%. From January to August, the import of bauxite was 141.4976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38% [39]. - Scrap Aluminum: As of the latest data this week, the quotation of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 16,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and fragments was 172,610.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%; the export was 53.23 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [45]. - Alumina: In August 2025, the output of alumina was 7.9247 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%; from January to August, the cumulative output of alumina was 60.5232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In August 2025, the import of alumina was 94,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.03% and a year - on - year increase of 1398.2%; the export was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.74% and a year - on - year increase of 28.57%. From January to August, the cumulative import of alumina was 488,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 61.3% [48]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In August 2025, the import of electrolytic aluminum was 217,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%; from January to August, the cumulative import of electrolytic aluminum was 1.7142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.34%; in August 2025, the export of electrolytic aluminum was 25,600 tons, and from January to August, the cumulative export of electrolytic aluminum was 152,500 tons. From January to July 2025, the global aluminum market had a supply gap of - 119,900 tons. In August 2025, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%; from January to August, the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum was 30.138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In August 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.379 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34% and a year - on - year increase of 1.99%; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 0.52%; the operating rate was 98.11%, an increase of 0.33% from last month and a decrease of 1.41% from the same period last year [51][55]. - Aluminum Products: In August 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.5482 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; from January to August, the cumulative output of aluminum products was 43.7898 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0%. In August 2025, the import of aluminum products was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; the export was 530,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. From January to August, the import of aluminum products was 2.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%; the export was 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [59]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: In August 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 18.8%; the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 635,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.04 and a year - on - year increase of 11.77% [62]. - Aluminum Alloy: In August 2025, the output of aluminum alloy was 1.635 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%; from January to August, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 12.324 million tons. In August 2025, the import of aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.74%; the export was 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.29%. From January to August, the import of aluminum alloy was 683,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.06%; the export was 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.73% [65]. - Real Estate: In August 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.28 from last month and an increase of 0.81 from the same period last year. From January to August 2024, the newly started area of housing was 398.0101 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.54%; the completed area of housing was 276.9354 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.94% [68]. - Infrastructure and Automobiles: From January to August 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year. In August 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,856,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.44%; the production volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,815,413 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% [71]. 4. Option Market Analysis - It is recommended to consider constructing a double - buying strategy to go long on volatility due to the subsequent support for aluminum prices [73].
铝类市场周报：供给小涨需求提振，铝类或将有所支撑-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:57