铁矿石市场周报：到港和港口库存增加铁矿期价承压回调-20250926

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures price is under pressure and has pulled back due to increased arrivals and port inventories. The I2601 contract is recommended for short - term trading in the range of 810 - 770 yuan/ton, considering the tariff disturbances affecting market sentiment, high hot metal production, and weakening upward momentum of iron ore as the holiday approaches [2][9]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Price - As of September 26, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 790 (-17.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 851 (+1) yuan/dry ton [7]. Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 248.3 tons week - on - week. From September 15 to 21, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 3324.8 tons, and the total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2772.8 tons, a decrease of 205.0 tons [7]. Arrival - From September 15 to 21, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports increased by 358.1 tons, the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports increased by 312.7 tons, and the arrival volume at six northern ports increased by 45.0 tons [7]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production was 242.36 tons, an increase of 1.34 tons week - on - week and 17.50 tons year - on - year [7]. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14550.68 tons, an increase of 169 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1242.24 tons year - on - year. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 9736.39 tons, an increase of 426.96 tons [7]. Profit Margin - The profit margin of steel mills was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 39.40 percentage points year - on - year [7]. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, tariff disturbances affect market sentiment. Industrially, hot metal production remains high, but the upward momentum of iron ore weakens as the holiday approaches. Technically, the I2601 contract is under pressure and may test the support near MA60 (775). It is recommended to trade the I2601 contract in the 810 - 770 yuan/ton range [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the I2601 contract was under pressure and pulled back, and its performance was weaker than that of the I2605 contract. On the 26th, the price difference was 20.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 26, the number of Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore warehouse receipts was 2000, an increase of 300 week - on - week. The net short position of the top 20 holders of ore futures contracts was 22924, a decrease of 10873 from the previous week [21]. Spot Price - On September 26, the price of 61% Australian Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 851 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 1 yuan/dry ton week - on - week. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, and on the 26th, the basis was 61 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton week - on - week [27]. 3. Industry Situation Arrival Volume - From September 15 to 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased [30]. Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 169.00 tons, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 0.38 tons. The inventory of steel mills increased by 426.96 tons, the daily consumption increased by 1.83 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 1.23 days [33]. Inventory Availability - As of September 25, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 24 days, an increase of 2 days. On September 25, the BDI was 2266, an increase of 63 week - on - week [38]. Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - In August 2025, China's iron ore imports increased by 0.6% month - on - month. As of September 19, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines was 64.03%, an increase of 0.2% [41]. Iron Ore Production - In August 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the iron concentrate production increased by 0.4% month - on - month [45]. 4. Downstream Situation Crude Steel Production - In August 2025, China's crude steel production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. Steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10.6% month - on - month [48]. Blast Furnace Operation - On September 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average hot metal production was 242.36 tons, an increase of 1.34 tons week - on - week [51]. 5. Options Market - With high hot metal production and rigid demand for iron ore spot, but weakening upward momentum after the National Day holiday replenishment, it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options [54].