Report Summary - Report Title: Sugar Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and export capacity slowed down slightly. Domestically, northern sugar mills have started production on a small scale, and the new - season sugar is expected to increase slightly. Spot prices are stable with a weakening trend. The control of imported syrup from Thailand has been relaxed, and the amount of syrup is expected to increase slightly. The sugar sales progress in Guangxi is slow due to the extrusion of processed sugar. However, typhoon - induced lodging of sugarcane in Guangxi and other places provides short - term support, while sufficient supply suppresses upward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31% [5] - Market Outlook: As of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased from 85 to 76, and the quantity of waiting - to - be - shipped sugar decreased from 328.27 million tons to 310.39 million tons. The overnight Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.05%. Domestically, northern sugar mills started production on a small scale, and new - season sugar is expected to increase slightly. Spot prices are stable with a weakening trend. The control of imported syrup from Thailand is relaxed, and the amount of syrup is expected to rise slightly. The slow sugar sales in Guangxi are affected by processed sugar, but there is short - term support due to typhoon - affected sugarcane lodging, and upward movement is suppressed by sufficient supply [5] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [6] - Future Focus Factors: Domestic sugar production and sales situation, new - season output [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Market: The price of the US Sugar March contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.68%. As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 106,344 lots, a decrease of 33,266 lots from the previous week; long positions were 175,246 lots, an increase of 5,166 lots; short positions were 281,590 lots, a decrease of 28,100 lots [12] - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 15.72 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.42 cents per pound from last week [17] - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 80,973 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 9,464 [20][26] - Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread: The spread between the Zhengzhou Sugar 1 - 5 contracts was + 36 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 412 yuan/ton [30] - Spot Market: As of September 26, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,890 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,810 yuan/ton [37] - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,506 yuan/ton, a decrease of 119 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,348 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98 yuan/ton; the estimated profit outside the quota was 178 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [43] 3. Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Production Increase: As of the end of August 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [46] - Supply Side - Industrial Inventory: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [49] - Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity: In August 2025, China's sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [53] - Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate: As of the end of August 2025, all sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had stopped production. The total sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, 0.65 percentage points faster than the same period last year [57] - Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production: In August 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 454,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.7578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [61] 4. Options and Stock - Related Markets - Options Market: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is provided, but specific numerical data is not given [62] - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: A graph of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is presented, but specific analysis is not provided [67]
白糖市场周报-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-26 09:51