碳酸锂市场周报：稳步降库预期转好，锂价或将有所支撑-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract fluctuated and declined, with a change of -1.46% and an amplitude of 3.62%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton. The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate may show a situation where supply increases slightly and demand gradually rises, with positive industry expectations and gradual reduction of inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated and declined, with a change of -1.46% and an amplitude of 3.62%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Outlook: Overseas miners still have a strong willingness to support prices, and the supply of domestic mining areas is expected to gradually become clear. Lithium ore may continue to have firm quotes. Supply is expected to show an increasing trend, and the overall domestic supply of lithium carbonate may increase slightly. Driven by the traditional consumption season, downstream orders and production schedules have improved, and the industry maintains a high - growth trend. Policy support is more positive, and the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to increase [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: Conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control trading rhythm to manage risks [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of September 26, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 72,880 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,080 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton [10]. - Spot Price: As of September 26, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,180 yuan/ton [16]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of September 26, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 876 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous week. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1253, a week - on - week increase of 0.24% [20]. - Lithium Mica: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,846.92 tons, an increase of 8,001.6 tons from July, a growth rate of 57.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.54%. The monthly export volume was 368.905 tons, an increase of 2.56 tons from July, a growth rate of 0.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 56.97%. The monthly output was 45,880 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons from July, a growth rate of 2.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.09%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32]. 3.5 Downstream Market - Demand Side: - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: As of September 26, 2025, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 59,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 yuan/ton. As of August 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 192,100 tons, an increase of 10,150 tons from July, a growth rate of 5.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 43.84% [35]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 34,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. As of August 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 240,000 tons, an increase of 26,040 tons from July, a growth rate of 12.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.6%. The monthly operating rate was 57%, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 3% [38]. - Ternary Materials: As of August 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 65,860 tons, an increase of 3,940 tons from July, a growth rate of 6.36%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.61%. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. As of the latest data, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to strengthen [43]. - Lithium Manganate: As of August 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,330 tons, an increase of 210 tons from July, a growth rate of 2.08%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09%. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium manganate was 32,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [48]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of August 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 14,980 tons, an increase of 2,110 tons from July, a growth rate of 16.39%, and a year - on - year increase of 92.05%. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 230,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [51]. - Application Side: - New Energy Vehicles: As of August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 45.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 8.03%. The monthly output was 1,391,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 11.91%; the sales volume was 1,395,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.54% [53]. - New Energy Vehicle Exports: As of August 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.29% [58]. 3.6 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.18, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [61].