锌产业周报-20250926

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Core Views Bullish Factors - A slight decrease in domestic refined zinc supply combined with pre-holiday stockpiling demand has boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm [3] - Continuous depletion of overseas LME inventories to low levels, with the strong overseas and weak domestic pattern providing support [3] Bearish Factors - The expectation of supply surplus has been strengthened, and the increase in the operating rate of domestic smelters has accelerated the accumulation of social inventories [3] - The fundamentals continue to be weak, with an obvious increasing trend in supply and the export window not effectively opened [3] Trading Advisory View - In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range, lacking a unilateral driving force [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - The report includes data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly output of galvanized steel coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die-cast zinc alloys, color-coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [4][6][8] - It also presents data on real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area, as well as the transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities and the floor area of land transactions in 100 large and medium-sized cities [11][13][15] - Additionally, it shows data on infrastructure fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) [17] Supply and Supply-side Profits - The report provides data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, SMM zinc ingot monthly output, China's zinc ingot monthly output + import volume, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [20][22][23] Futures and Spot Market Review - The report shows data on the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, LME zinc (spot/three months) basis, LME zinc (spot/three months) basis seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [29][30][31]