Core View - Bullish factors: Increased disturbances at the mine end, strong price - holding mentality of Philippine mines, rising supply costs; Slight improvement in demand, with the enhanced demand in September driving supply - demand correction [3] - Bearish factors: Decline in macro - expectations, overall weakness in the metal sector after the Fed's interest rate cut; Continuous accumulation of LME nickel inventory, increasing surplus pressure on refined nickel [3] - Trading advice: Focus on short - term range trading and avoid heavy - position operations [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - Price changes: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,990 yuan/ton, up 1,590 yuan or 1.31% week - on - week; the closing price of LME nickel 3M was 15,435 dollars/ton, up 100 dollars or 0.97% week - on - week. The prices of other nickel contracts also showed varying degrees of increase [4] - Position and volume: The position volume was 99,642 lots, up 54,574 lots or 121.1% week - on - week; the trading volume was 177,030 lots, up 110,931 lots or 167.83% week - on - week [4] - Warehouse receipts: The number of warehouse receipts was 25,105 tons, down 738 tons or 2.86% week - on - week [4] - Basis: The basis of the main contract was - 505 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 4.72% week - on - week [4] Stainless Steel Futures - Price changes: The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,930 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 20 yuan or 0%. The prices of other stainless steel contracts showed slight increases [4] - Position and volume: The position volume was 109,896 lots, down 20,121 lots or 15.48% week - on - week; the trading volume was 129,897 lots, down 8,718 lots or 6.29% week - on - week [4] - Warehouse receipts: The number of warehouse receipts was 87,803 tons, down 1,929 tons or 2.15% week - on - week [4] - Basis: The basis of the main contract was 640 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 9.86% week - on - week [4] Spot Nickel - Price changes: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan or 1.25%; the price of imported nickel was 123,225 yuan/ton, up 1,625 yuan or 1.34%; the price of 1 electrolytic nickel was 124,050 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.31%; the price of nickel beans was 125,350 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.29%; the price of electrodeposited nickel was 122,950 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.32% [4] Inventory - Domestic social inventory: The domestic social inventory of nickel was 41,484 tons, up 429 tons compared with the previous period [4] - LME nickel inventory: The LME nickel inventory was 230,586 tons, unchanged from the previous period [6] - Stainless steel social inventory: The stainless steel social inventory was 909 tons, up 11.8 tons [6] - Nickel pig iron inventory: The nickel pig iron inventory was 28,652 tons, down 614.5 tons [6] Data Graphs - Nickel futures: Include the closing price trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) [7][8] - Stainless steel futures: Show the closing price trend of stainless steel futures main contract [9][10] - Spot nickel: Present the average price of nickel spot [11][12] - Primary nickel supply and inventory: Cover China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality, total primary nickel monthly supply including imports seasonality, domestic social inventory of nickel plates and nickel beans seasonality, LME nickel inventory seasonality, etc. [13][14][15] - Nickel ore and nickel pig iron: Include the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality, China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price national average, Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price, etc. [16][17] - Nickel iron production: Show China's and Indonesia's nickel iron monthly production seasonality [18][20] - Downstream nickel sulfate: Include the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, the seasonality of the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the seasonality of the profit of producing electrodeposited nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China, etc. [22][24] - Stainless steel: Include the seasonality of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit rate, stainless steel monthly production seasonality, and stainless steel inventory seasonality [28][29][31]
镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250926
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-09-26 10:46