上海东亚期货周报：集运（欧线）-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, Maersk significantly increased the spot freight rates for the second half of October, indicating that shipping companies are starting to support prices for the upcoming peak season. Currently, the overall cargo volume on the European route is weak, and there was some control over shipping capacity in the first half of October due to holidays. Future attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - support measures and the market's expectations for the peak season in December [7]. - Bullish factors include the complex situation in the Middle East, which makes short - term navigation in the Red Sea unlikely, and some shipping companies starting to support freight rates for the second half of October [7]. - Bearish factors are that the deployed shipping capacity on the European route is currently relatively high, and the cargo volume remains at the off - season level. The cargo volume in the second half of October may fall short of expectations [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Points - Latest View: Maersk's rate hike shows shipping companies' price - support for the peak season. Current European route cargo is weak, with capacity control in early October. Monitor price - support implementation and December peak - season expectations [7]. - Likely Factors: Complex Middle East situation affecting Red Sea navigation and some shipping companies' price - support for late October [7]. - Negative Factors: High deployed capacity on the European route and low off - season cargo volume, with potential under - performance in late October [7]. - Price Data: SCFIS European route on Monday was 1,254.92 (1,440.24) points, down 12.87% month - on - month; SCFIS US West route was 1,193.64 (1,349.84) points, down 11.57% month - on - month. On Friday, SCFI composite index was 1,114.52 (1,198.21), down 6.98% month - on - month, with SCFI European route at 971 (1052) dollars/TEU, down 7.70% month - on - month, and SCFI US West route at 1460 (1636) dollars/FEU, down 10.76% month - on - month [9]. - Supply Data: As of Friday, there were 7,414 (7,402) global container ships with a total capacity of 33,101,322 (33,055,884) TEU, up 0.14% from last Friday. In early September, idle capacity was about 486,400 TEU, with an idle capacity ratio of 1.47%. In August, the global main - route comprehensive punctuality rate was 44.21 (45.06)%, arrival and departure service punctuality rate was 40.24 (42.23)%, and pick - up and delivery service punctuality rate was 48.17 (47.89)% [9]. - Demand Data: In August, China's export value was 321.81 (321.784) billion dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In July, exports to the US were 31.60404 (35.82748) billion dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 33.12%, and exports to the EU were 51.68954 (50.00028) billion dollars, a year - on - year increase of 10.38% [10]. 3.2 Container Transport Prices - SCFIS: European route decreased by 12.87% month - on - month on Monday; US West route decreased by 11.57% month - on - month [9]. - SCFI: Composite index decreased by 6.98% month - on - month on Friday, with European route down 7.70% and US West route down 10.76% month - on - month [9]. - Other Prices: International container charter price index and global container ship average revenue data are presented in graphs, showing historical trends and monthly changes [23]. 3.3 Container Transport Supply - Global Container Ship Capacity: As of Friday, there were 7,414 ships with a total capacity of 33,101,322 TEU, up 0.14% from last Friday. Historical capacity data (ships and TEU) are shown in a graph [9][27]. - Idle Capacity: In early September, idle capacity was about 486,400 TEU, with a ratio of 1.47%. Historical idle capacity and its proportion are presented in a graph [9][33]. - Ship Delivery and Orders: Data on global container ship deliveries (ships and TEU) and new - signed container ship orders (TEU) are shown in graphs [35]. - China's Container - Related Equipment Exports: Data on China's container ship and container exports, including monthly values and cumulative year - on - year changes, are presented in graphs [38]. - Shipping Punctuality Rates: Global main - route comprehensive punctuality rate, arrival and departure service punctuality rate, and pick - up and delivery service punctuality rate data are provided, along with historical trends. Punctuality rates of global liner companies, alliances, and major ports are also presented in graphs [40][45][48]. - Ship Fuel Prices: Graphs show the price differences between high - sulfur and low - sulfur marine fuels in Singapore and Rotterdam [54]. 3.4 Container Transport Demand - PMI Data: China's manufacturing PMI and new export order PMI data, along with a comparison of China, the US, and the EU's PMI, are presented in graphs [58]. - Foreign Demand: Data on US commercial inventory changes and EU 27 retail sales changes, including monthly and year - on - year changes, are presented in graphs [60]. - Import and Export Data: China's customs import and export values and their year - on - year changes, as well as seasonal data on China's exports to the US and the EU, are presented in graphs [63][65]. - Cargo Volume: Seasonal data on European and US route cargo volumes are presented in graphs [68]. - Port Throughput: National port container throughput data and monthly changes, as well as Shanghai Port's container throughput and its year - on - year changes, are presented in graphs [70][73]. - Exchange Rates: Graphs show the spot exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the Chinese yuan [75].