黑色建材周报：玻璃-20250926

Report Information - Report Title: Black Building Materials Weekly - Glass [2] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yue Jinchen [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Supply remains stable with steady production while short - term demand sentiment is boosted, leading to a price increase of raw glass and moderate restocking by mid - and downstream players. Glass factory inventories decreased rapidly this week, and the spot market center has shifted upwards. The far - month contracts still face a game between expectations and reality, with the futures market showing a short - term oscillatory upward trend [7] Summary by Directory 1. Glass Fundamental Points - Latest View: Supply is stable, short - term demand sentiment is improved, inventories are decreasing, and the market is oscillatory upward [7] - Supply: This week, the national float glass output was 112420 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. The industry's start - up rate was 76.01%, unchanged from the 18th, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a 0.25 - percentage - point increase from the 18th [11] - Demand: As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [11] - Inventory: As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.553 million heavy boxes, a 2.55% decrease, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days were 25.4 days, a 0.6 - day decrease from the previous period [11] - Price: As of Thursday, September 25, the domestic market price was 1231 yuan/ton, a 65 - yuan/ton increase from 1166 yuan/ton on September 18. The price in North China was 1160 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton increase, and in Central China was 1150 yuan/ton, a 33 - yuan/ton increase [11] - Profit: The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 151.27 yuan/ton, a 13.75 - yuan/ton increase; using coal - made gas was 95.07 yuan/ton, a 1.04 - yuan/ton increase; and using petroleum coke was 61.37 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton increase [11] - Negative Factors: Downstream terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the entire industrial chain has high inventories with stable production [9] - Positive Factors: Glass factory inventories are decreasing rapidly, mid - and downstream players are restocking, and the cost - increasing logic of coal still exists [9] 2. Float Glass - Supply: Charts show the trends of national float glass capacity utilization rate, start - up rate, and output from 2022 - 2025 [15][17] - Demand: Charts show the trends of glass deep - processing downstream factory order days, Low - e glass start - up rate, and China's deep - processed glass export volume from 2022 - 2025 [19][21][24] - Inventory: Charts show the trends of national float glass production enterprise inventories, inventory days, and inventories in different regions (North China, East China, etc.) from 2022 - 2025, as well as the inventory of float glass traders in Shahe and glass warehouse receipt quantities [26][28][31] - Price: Charts show the trends of domestic market glass spot prices, Shahe float glass 5mm large - board market cash prices from 2021 - 2025 [36][38] - Profit: Chart shows the trend of national float glass production gross profit using different fuels (coal - made, petroleum coke - made, natural gas - made) from 2022 - 2025 [40] 3. Photovoltaic Glass - Price: Chart shows the prices of national photovoltaic glass panels (2mm coated and 3.2mm coated) [44] - Capacity: Chart shows the trends of national photovoltaic glass capacity utilization rate, start - up rate, and output from 2022 - 2025 [46] 4. Macroeconomic Data - Real Estate: Charts show the trends of national real estate development and sales (cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area) from 2010 - 2025, and the weekly transaction areas of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities (total, first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities) from 2022 - 2025 [50][53]