黑色建材周报：纯碱-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The overall change in the supply - side devices is small, and the comprehensive supply remains at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, with appropriate restocking before the festival, and the alkali plant's pending orders have slightly increased. This week, the alkali plant's shipments were good, and the inventory fluctuated downward. The futures market is still in a situation of game between reality and expectation and has entered a volatile pattern. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include stable downstream start - up and cost support; negative factors include relatively high comprehensive supply and high inventory in the entire industry [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Basic Points of Soda Ash - Latest View: The supply - side devices have little change, and the comprehensive supply is high. Downstream demand is stable, with pre - festival restocking. Alkali plant's pending orders slightly increase. Shipments are good, inventory decreases, and the futures market is volatile due to the game between reality and expectation [7] - Positive Factors: Stable downstream start - up and cost support from stable raw salt and rising coal prices [7] - Negative Factors: Relatively high comprehensive supply and high inventory in the whole industry [7] 3.2. Supply, Demand, Inventory - Supply: This week, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 89.12%, a 3.59% increase from last week. The domestic soda ash output was 77.69 tons, a 3.12 - ton (4.19%) increase from last week [9] - Demand: During the week, the pending orders of soda ash enterprises had little change, remaining at more than 12 days [9] - Inventory: As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 165.15 tons, a 10.41 - ton (5.93%) decrease from last Thursday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 72.91 tons, a 2.04 - ton decrease, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 92.24 tons, an 8.37 - ton decrease [9] 3.3. Price, Cost, Profit - Price: This week, the price of light soda ash in North China was 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton [9] - Profit: This week, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 77.50 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease from last week; the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process was - 37.20 yuan/ton, a 0.45 - yuan decrease from last week [9]