沪锌期货早报-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures rebound in a volatile manner, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased, and both long and short positions reduced, with more short - positions being cut. It was a volume - shrinking rebound. The bulls were active in exiting the market during the price rebound, and the bears were even more active. The market may experience a short - term volatile decline. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the weak zone. The trend indicator rose, with the bullish power increasing and the bearish power decreasing, and the dominance of the bearish power narrowing. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2511 will decline in a volatile manner [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 0.0113 million tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 0.2133 million tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, indicating a bullish situation [2]. - The spot price was 21,910, and the basis was + 135, suggesting a bearish situation [2]. - On September 25th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 600 tons to 43,800 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 774 tons to 56,583 tons, showing a bullish situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile upward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average which was downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. - The main force held a net long position, and the long positions decreased, suggesting a bullish situation [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (September 25) - Various delivery - month contracts of zinc futures showed different price movements, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, the 2511 contract had an opening price of 21,935, a closing price of 22,045, a trading volume of 158,280 lots, and an open - interest of 131,286 lots with a decrease of 10,581 lots. The total trading volume of all contracts was 242,174 lots, and the total open - interest was 238,462 lots with a decrease of 14,894 lots [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (September 25) - Different zinc - related products in the domestic market had different prices and price changes. For instance, zinc concentrate in a certain area was priced at 16,570 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan/ton, and zinc ingots in a certain area were priced at 21,910 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (September 15 - 25, 2025) - The total zinc ingot inventory in the main markets decreased from 14.95 million tons on September 15th to 13.54 million tons on September 25th. Compared with September 18th, it decreased by 1.28 million tons, and compared with September 22nd, it decreased by 0.91 million tons [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (September 25) - The total zinc warrants in the futures exchange were 56,583 tons, a decrease of 774 tons compared to the previous day. Different regions and warehouses had different warrant quantities and changes. For example, in Guangdong, the total was 28,915 tons with no change, and in Tianjin, it was 26,947 tons with a decrease of 575 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (September 25) - The LME zinc inventory on September 25th was 43,800 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 30,725 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 13,075 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 29.85% [7]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (September 25) - Zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in different domestic cities had prices ranging from 16,470 to 16,670 yuan/ton, all with an increase of 40 yuan/ton [9]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (September 25) - Zinc ingots of 0 grade from different smelters had different prices. For example, those from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting were priced at 22,140 yuan/ton, and those from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry were priced at 22,470 yuan/ton, all with an increase of 50 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 0.4597 million tons, the actual production was 0.4718 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 0.4703 million tons [16]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (September 25) - Zinc concentrate processing fees varied by region. For 50% grade zinc concentrates, the domestic processing fees ranged from 3,400 to 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and for imported 48% grade zinc concentrates, it was 90 - 110 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (September 25) - In the trading and position ranking of the zn2511 contract, different futures companies had different trading volumes, long - positions, and short - positions and their changes. For example, CITIC Futures had a trading volume of 50,057 lots with an increase of 14,272 lots, a long - position of 8,973 lots with a decrease of 1,433 lots, and a short - position of 17,870 lots with a decrease of 1,122 lots. The total trading volume of all companies was 248,133 lots with an increase of 80,478 lots, the total long - position was 88,263 lots with a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the total short - position was 92,681 lots with a decrease of 8,057 lots [19].