铜周报：铜价延续上涨趋势-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia declared force majeure due to a mudslide accident, and the 2026 production target was lowered, increasing the expectation of a global copper mine supply shortage [4]. - The opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle has pushed down the US dollar, and the continuously low global visible inventory has intensified the market's panic - buying sentiment [4]. - Downstream buyers are highly reluctant to buy at high prices. Orders from the home appliance and photovoltaic sectors are weak. The operating rate of copper strip production is only 65.87%, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment is less than expected [4]. - The opening of the import window has led to an increase in domestic social inventory. Policy adjustments for recycled copper have increased smelting cost pressure, and the demand side has insufficient purchasing power [4]. - The mining accident has driven the strong breakthrough of Shanghai copper futures. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has intensified, supporting the price to run strongly. However, one should be wary of the suppression of demand by high prices and the risk of inventory accumulation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 82,470 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.2%. The position is 229,050, and the weekly increase in position is 112,498. The trading volume is 174,625 [6]. - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Index - weighted is 82,451 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. The position is 546,016, and the weekly increase in position is 66,985. The trading volume is 314,453 [6]. - The latest price of International Copper is 73,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.36%. The position is 2,621, and the weekly decrease in position is 1,877. The trading volume is 5,553 [6]. - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is $10,275.5/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.31%. The position is 239,014, and the weekly decrease in position is 38,282. The trading volume is 42,366 [6]. - The latest price of COMEX Copper is $478.85/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.1%. The position is 131,374, and the weekly increase in position is 7,842. The trading volume is 65,306 [6]. 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper is 82,485 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,495 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.12% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 82,510 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,540 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.18% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 82,590 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,560 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.2% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 82,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,550 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.18% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 5 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 75 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 107.14% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is - 10 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 60 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 120% [11]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is - 15 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 55 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 137.5% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 75 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 40% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - $31.55/ton, with a weekly increase of $39.54 and a weekly decrease rate of 55.62% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is - $39.98/ton, with a weekly increase of $120.3 and a weekly decrease rate of 75.06% [11]. 3.3 Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 675.54 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 679.42 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 17,510.82% [12]. - The latest copper concentrate TC is - $40.65/ton, with a weekly increase of $0.75 and a weekly decrease rate of 1.81% [12]. - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 3.9841, with a weekly increase of 0.1516 and a weekly increase rate of 3.96% [12]. - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,010.53 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,258.4 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 71.82% [12]. 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 26,557 tons, with a weekly decrease of 5,281 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 16.59% [17]. - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 8,373 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,878 tons and a weekly increase rate of 28.91% [17]. - The Shanghai Copper inventory is 98,779 tons, with a weekly decrease of 7,035 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 6.65% [17]. - The LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 133,025 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,400 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 1.77% [17]. - The LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 11,400 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,050 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 15.24% [20]. - The LME Copper inventory is 144,425 tons, with a weekly decrease of 4,450 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 2.99% [20]. - The COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 148,567 tons, with a weekly decrease of 942 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 0.63% [20]. - The COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 172,489 tons, with a weekly increase of 6,792 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.1% [20]. - The COMEX Copper inventory is 321,056 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,850 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.86% [20]. - The copper mine port inventory is 58.3 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.9 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.57% [20]. - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20]. 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The cumulative output was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [23]. - In August 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The cumulative output was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [23]. 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 63.02%, with a monthly increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.11%. The total annual capacity is 15.84 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 24.81%, with a monthly decrease of 1.92% and a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The total annual capacity is 8.19 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 64.72%, with a monthly decrease of 1.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.98%. The total annual capacity is 3.59 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper bars was 49.86%, with a monthly decrease of 0.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%. The total annual capacity is 2.2865 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 62.55%, with a monthly decrease of 5.33% and a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The total annual capacity is 2.783 million tons [25]. 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrates was 2.759295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import volume was 20.07674 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 61,712 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. The cumulative import volume was 528,637 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 263,049 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The cumulative import volume was 2,206,092 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 179,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The cumulative import volume was 1,514,842 tons, with no year - on - year change [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative import volume was 3,540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% [29].