Report Information - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [21] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short - term due to reduced terminal demand and low inventory, and face downward pressure in the long - term due to increased production and lower costs [3] - Starch prices are expected to be lowered in the short - term to reduce inventory, and remain bearish in the long - term due to high inventory and lower expected raw material costs [3] - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high supply from Brazil in the international market, and the domestic market is also facing pressure with the arrival of imported sugar [4] - Cotton is in a consolidation phase, with limited downside if no major macro - risks occur, and attention should be paid to demand changes [5] - Egg prices have rebounded but are restricted by high inventory and cold - storage eggs, and the possibility of falling below feed costs is low. Post - festival chicken culling should be monitored [10] - Apple production in the new season is expected to be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the final production [11] - Pig prices are supported by policy expectations for the long - term next year, but face medium - term supply pressure. Near - term, attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price and Index Changes: From September 22 - 26, the price in Shekou increased by 20, the basis decreased by 13, the trade profit increased by 20, and the import profit increased by 19 for corn. For starch, the basis decreased by 6, and the processing profit remained unchanged [2] - Market Analysis: Short - term, corn prices are weak due to reduced demand, and starch prices are expected to be lowered. Long - term, both are under downward pressure [3] Sugar - Price and Index Changes: From September 22 - 26, the basis increased by 7, the import profit from Thailand and Brazil decreased by 32 each, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 329 [4] - Market Analysis: International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's high supply, and the domestic market is also affected by imported sugar [4] Cotton - Price and Index Changes: From September 22 - 26, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 70, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 186, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 21, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 73 [5] - Market Analysis: Cotton is in a consolidation phase, with limited downside and attention on demand [5] Eggs - Price and Index Changes: From September 22 - 26, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, and Hubei decreased by 0.09, and the basis increased by 230 [10] - Market Analysis: Egg prices have rebounded but are restricted by high inventory, and the possibility of falling below feed costs is low. Monitor post - festival chicken culling [10] Apples - Price and Index Changes: From September 22 - 26, the national inventory increased by 45, Shandong inventory increased by 32, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 28 [11] - Market Analysis: New - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season. Monitor final production [11] Pigs - Price and Index Changes: From September 22 - 26, the prices in Hubei and Anhui decreased by 0.05, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.10, while the basis increased by 110 [15] - Market Analysis: Pig prices are supported by long - term policy expectations but face medium - term supply pressure. Monitor factors such as slaughter rhythm [15]
农产品早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-29 00:45