甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the pressure transmission from ports to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment, but port backflow will impact the inland valuation. Current valuation, inventory, and drivers are not ideal, so bottom - fishing should wait [2]. - Plastic: Polyethylene inventory is neutral overall. There is no further increase in import profit for now. Pay attention to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - Polypropylene: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In the context of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 contract is moderately excessive, which can be alleviated if exports increase or PDH devices are frequently shut down [7]. - PVC: The basis remains stable. Downstream开工 is seasonally weak, and mid - upstream inventories are accumulating. Focus on production, exports, coal prices, and other factors [7]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From September 22 to 26, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801. There were minor changes in spot prices in different regions, and import profit and other data also had slight fluctuations [2]. - View: The trading logic is port - to - inland pressure transmission. Inland has stocking demand, but port backflow will affect inland valuation. Current conditions are not suitable for bottom - fishing [2]. Plastic - Price Data: From September 22 to 26, 2025, there were minor changes in prices such as东北亚乙烯,华北LL, etc.两油库存decreased from 68 to 59, and other data remained relatively stable [6]. - View: Polyethylene inventory is neutral. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Pay attention to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From September 22 to 26, 2025, prices of山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯, etc. had minor changes.两油库存decreased from 68 to 59, and other data were relatively stable [7]. - View: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The 01 contract has moderate over - capacity pressure, which can be alleviated by increased exports or PDH device shutdowns [7]. PVC - Price Data: From September 22 to 26, 2025, prices of西北电石,山东烧碱, etc. remained stable, with a 20 - unit decrease in电石 - based PVC in East China. Other data were relatively unchanged [7]. - View: The basis is stable. Downstream开工 is seasonally weak, mid - upstream inventories are accumulating. Focus on production, exports, coal prices, etc. [7]