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LPG早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-29 01:15
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward, mainly following the rise in oil prices. In the short - term, Shandong prices are firm, while East China has high supply pressure and is expected to remain weak overall. The external market is expected to be volatile and weak under the expectations of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, despite the seasonal increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - Daily Price Changes: From September 22 - 26, 2025, in the spot market, the price of South China LPG increased from 4640 to 4650 (+50), East China from 4385 to 4393 (+6), and Shandong from 4550 to 4580 (+10). The price of ether - post carbon four remained at 4620. The paper import profit increased by 42, and the main contract basis decreased by 17 [1]. - Futures Market: The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4373 (-42), Shandong at 4570 (+40), and South China at 4640 (-10). The basis was 103 (+113), the 10 - 11 spread was 148 (+83), and the 11 - 12 spread was 79 (+19). The number of warehouse receipts was 14327 (+1353) [1]. - External Market: The FEI monthly spread dropped 2.5 to - 8.5 dollars, and the CP monthly spread rose 1.5 to - 13 dollars. The FEI - CP spread was 1 (-5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. 3.2 Weekly Outlook - Domestic Market: Before the holiday, upstream inventory was cleared, arrivals decreased, propane chemical demand increased, and combustion demand replenished stocks. The PDH operating rate was 69.48% (+4.34 percentage points), and it is expected to rise next week [1]. - External Market: Although there is a seasonal increase, under the expectations of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, it is expected to be volatile and weak overall [1]. 3.3 Daily Changes - The basis was 103 (+96), and the 10 - 11 spread was 35 (+148). As of 9:00 am, FEI and CP c1 fluctuated, at 548 (-2) and 545 (+1) respectively [1].