广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: In the fourth quarter, the downside space is limited. Although the current downstream demand is mainly based on rigid - need purchases, there may be procurement willingness after the National Day due to low prices. In the fourth quarter, there may be concentrated stocking behavior, and the spot liquidity may tighten [2]. - PVC: In the fourth quarter, pay attention to cost support. Although the supply is in an over - capacity situation, exports have alleviated some pressure. The cost side provides bottom support, and the downside space during the peak season is limited [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the PXN has a compression expectation. The price will be under pressure due to weak cost - side support and weak supply - demand expectations [6]. - PTA: In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to have an independent market and may follow the cost side to fluctuate weakly [6]. - Ethylene Glycol: In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a period of inventory accumulation as it enters the demand off - season [6]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: For LLDPE, the current maintenance is at a high point, and the inventory of the upper - middle reaches is being depleted. For PP, unplanned maintenance has increased due to losses, and the inventory has decreased. However, after the festival, there is a large inventory pressure, and the new capacity release limits the upside space [9]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: In the short term, it will continue the volatile pattern. The supply side has a game between the expected supply reduction and the relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak as the traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the new polyolefin device production expectations suppress the MTO demand [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the oil price trend and macro - market sentiment [25]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical and macro - news [26]. Fertilizer Industry - Urea: The futures price fluctuates downward. The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the export situation is uncertain [31]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: In the fourth quarter, the oil price will likely maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. Unilateral trading is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and arbitrage is recommended to use a positive - spread strategy [33][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - Spot and Futures Prices: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some products such as East China PVC by calcium carbide method decreased slightly, and the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged [2]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: The overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC were mostly stable, but the export profit of caustic soda decreased by 26.3%, and that of PVC increased by 323.8% [2]. - Supply: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 0.9%, while the data of caustic soda start - up rate was not available [2]. - Demand: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly, and the PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% [2]. - Inventory: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong, and PVC upstream factories increased, while the total PVC social inventory remained unchanged [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of some products such as CFR Japan naphtha decreased [6]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of CFR China PX and PX spot in RMB decreased [6]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: The PTA spot price in East China increased slightly, and the PTA futures price decreased [6]. - MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: The MEG spot price in East China decreased, and the MEG futures price also decreased [6]. Polyolefin Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of L2601, PP2601 and other futures decreased slightly, and the price of East China PP raffia decreased by 0.3% [8][9]. - Inventory and Start - up Rates: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the start - up rates of PE and PP devices increased [9]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased slightly, and the regional spreads changed [21]. - Inventory: The enterprise, port and social inventories of methanol decreased [21]. - Start - up Rates: The start - up rate of upstream domestic enterprises increased, while the start - up rates of some downstream industries decreased [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Upstream Prices and Spreads: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some upstream products such as CFR China pure benzene decreased, and the import profit of pure benzene decreased [25]. - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of styrene in East China spot and futures decreased slightly [25]. - Inventory and Start - up Rates: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, while the styrene inventory increased. The start - up rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [25]. Fertilizer Industry - Fertilizer Prices: The prices of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur are provided on September 26 [28][29]. - Urea Data: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea are presented. The daily output is high, and the demand is weak [31]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil Prices and Spreads: On September 29, compared with September 26, the prices of Brent, WTI and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads changed [33]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD decreased, and the spreads also changed [33]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: The crack spreads of some refined oil products such as US gasoline and diesel changed [33].