原油成品油早报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices strengthened again, with Brent crude closing above $68 per barrel. The month - spreads of Brent and WTI crude rebounded, while that of Dubai declined. The fundamentals of crude oil and geopolitical sanctions risks are diverging. There are sanctions on Iran and Russia, and the preliminary data in September shows a 4% month - on - month decline in Russia's crude exports compared to the same period in history. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have slightly decreased, and the absolute level is similar to that in 2019 and at a five - year high. OPEC's net crude oil exports have rebounded significantly. The resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase Iraq's exports. The US EIA commercial crude inventory has decreased, along with gasoline and diesel. Global refinery profits have rebounded again, with domestic refinery operations showing a decline in major refineries and an increase in local refineries, and a decline in refinery operations in Europe and the US. Under the baseline scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of crude oil, and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. The market is currently trading around sanctions and risk - premium concerns, and short - covering affects the market performance. Attention should be paid to risks before the National Day holiday [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price and Spread Data - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, WTI crude oil rose from $62.28 to $65.72, an increase of $0.74; Brent rose from $66.57 to $70.13, an increase of $0.71; Dubai decreased from $69.74 to $70.17, a decrease of $0.02. The 2 - month spread of Brent increased from $0.60 to $0.91, an increase of $0.07; the WTI - Brent spread increased from - $4.29 to - $4.41, an increase of $0.03; the Dubai - Brent spread increased from $0.52 to $0.66, an increase of $0.05 [3] - The price of SC increased by $0.70, Oman decreased by $0.09, the SC - Brent spread decreased by $0.64, and the SC - WTI spread decreased by $0.67. Domestic gasoline prices remained unchanged, and the domestic gasoline - Brent spread decreased by $44. Domestic diesel prices decreased by $4, and the domestic diesel - Brent spread decreased by $43 [3] - Japanese naphtha CFR decreased by $5.72 compared to Brent, Singapore fuel oil 380CST premium increased by $0.1, and the Singapore 380 - Brent spread increased by $0.48. The main contract of SHFE FU increased by 31 compared to Brent, the decrease was $1.06; the main contract of SHFE BU increased by 10, and the SHFE BU - Brent spread decreased by $4.05. HH natural gas increased by $0.100, and BFO increased by $1.27 [3] 3.2 Daily News - OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production by at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October meeting as rising oil prices encourage the organization to regain market share. OPEC+ has changed its production - cut strategy since April and has increased the quota by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global oil demand [3] - The substitution ratio of LNG and new energy for diesel consumption exceeds 20%. The sales of LNG and new energy heavy - duty trucks increased year - on - year, with a substitution of 3.86 million tons of diesel, accounting for 20.2%. In August, the terminal consumption of diesel was weak, and the substitution effect of new energy and LNG heavy - duty trucks on diesel consumption in logistics is steadily increasing [4] - The resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase Iraq's crude oil exports to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the next few days, and its production and exports will remain within OPEC's quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [4] - The total number of US oil drilling rigs in the week ending September 26 was 424, up from 418 in the previous week [4] - The arbitrage window for US crude oil exports to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates, lower Middle - East crude oil prices, and the closer geographical location of the Middle East to major global demand regions [5] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending September 19, US crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a 0.94% increase year - on - year; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [6] - From September 12 to September 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, and that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic production of gasoline and diesel increased, and inventories of both increased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated and strengthened, while that of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6]