大越期货玻璃周报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures first rose and then fell. The closing price of the main contract FG2601 increased by 2.96% compared with the previous week, reaching 1252 yuan/ton. The spot price of white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1148 yuan/ton, up 6.30% from the previous week [3]. - The fundamentals of the glass industry show limited improvement. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [3]. - The main logic is that glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream has carried out phased replenishment, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventories. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and it is expected that glass will mainly operate in a wide - range volatile manner [6]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1252 yuan/ton, up 2.96% from the previous week. The spot benchmark price was 1148 yuan/ton, up 6.30%. The main basis was - 104 yuan/ton, down 23.53% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1148 yuan/ton, up 6.30% from the previous week [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit - Not detailed in the report Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%. The number of operating production lines was at a historical low in the same period [21]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 160,700 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [23]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [27]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 59.355 million weight boxes, down 2.55% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [4]. Bearish Factors - The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period [5]. - The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic. Traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [5]. - The market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [5].