大越期货纯碱周报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures first rose and then fell. The closing price of the main contract SA2601 decreased by 1.90% compared to the previous week, reaching 1293 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, a 2.04% drop from the previous week. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain at a high level next week, with an estimated output of 770,000 tons and an operating rate of 89%. The demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average, mainly on - demand, with pre - holiday inventory replenishment and more low - price transactions. The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1651,500 tons as of September 25, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, but still at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1318 yuan/ton to 1293 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.90%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1225 yuan/ton to 1200 yuan/ton, a 2.04% decrease. The main basis remained unchanged at - 93 yuan/ton [8]. II. Soda Ash Spot Market 1. Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 115.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [18]. 2. Soda Ash Operating Rate, Capacity, and Output - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 89.12%. The weekly output was 776,900 tons, including 430,100 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The heavy - production rate was 55.36% [21][24][26]. 3. Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [27]. III. Fundamental Analysis - Demand 1. Soda Ash Production - Sales Ratio - The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash was 113.40% [30]. 2. Soda Ash Downstream Demand - Float Glass: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 160,200 tons, and the operating rate of 76.01% was stable [33]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1651,500 tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [40]. V. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [41].