大越期货沪铝周报-20250929

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated. The main contract fell 0.24%, closing at 20,745 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the carbon - neutral policy, long - term capacity control, weak demand due to domestic real - estate suppression, the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US increasing steel and aluminum tariffs all had a negative impact on domestic aluminum prices, affecting consumption. Domestically, demand has entered the peak season, awaiting consumption recovery. Last week, LME inventory was 517,700 tons, a slight increase from the previous week, while SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 3,108 tons to 124,626 tons [3]. 3) Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾 - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated. The main contract fell 0.24%, closing at 20,745 yuan/ton on Friday. Negative factors such as capacity control, weak demand, policy changes, and tariff increases affected aluminum prices. Domestically, demand entered the peak season, awaiting recovery. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased [3]. 3.2基本面（库存结构） - 供需平衡表: The Chinese annual supply - demand balance sheet for aluminum (in 10,000 tons) shows that from 2018 - 2024, there were supply shortages in most years, except for a 150,000 - ton surplus in 2024. For example, in 2018, the supply shortage was 476,000 tons; in 2019, it was 686,100 tons; in 2020, it was 13,000 tons; in 2021, it was 142,000 tons; in 2022, it was 299,800 tons; in 2023, it was 43,000 tons [11]. 3.3市场结构 - 期现价差: No specific content provided. - 进口利润: No specific content provided.