Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply-side arrivals have decreased this month, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production while the trade war is easing; the overall situation is neutral [2]. - Regarding the basis, the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 828, with a basis of 38; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 844, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; this is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 14,450.68 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; this is neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward; this is neutral [2]. - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short positions are decreasing; this is bearish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan to reduce production capacity is impacting the market, suggesting a high - level consolidation mindset [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrivals have decreased this month, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there will be crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot is at a premium to futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventories are 14,450.68 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; neutral [2]. - Disk: Price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward; neutral [2]. - Main Position: Net short position, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand is decreasing, and the production capacity reduction plan is impacting the market, with a high - level consolidation mindset [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - Import losses exist [6]. - Downstream steel prices are rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipments will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].
铁矿石早报（2025-9-29）-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-29 02:34