Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The supply of beans and oils has increased due to Argentina's tariff policy, leading to an overall correction in oilseeds. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro - level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that the prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,260, with a basis of 98, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Market Chart: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,150, with a basis of - 86, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Market Chart: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Position: The main palm oil contract has changed from long to short [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,300, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Market Chart: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,400 [4]. 4. Supply and Demand Aspects - Supply: Includes soybean oil inventory [6], soybean meal inventory [8], oil mill soybean crushing [10], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [19], rapeseed inventory [21], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [23]. - Demand: Includes the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [14].
大越期货油脂早报-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-29 02:34