大越期货纯碱早报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to operate SA2601 in the range of 1,250 - 1,300 [2] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: There are few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. Terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period of history. It is bearish [2] - Basis: The spot price of heavy - duty soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,293 yuan/ton, the basis is - 93 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. It is bearish [2] - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2] - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. It is bearish [2] - Main Position: The main position is a net short position, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and the production is expected to decline [3] - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a high level in the same period of history; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - duty soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4] 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,315 | 1,293 | - 1.67% | | Low - end price of heavy - duty soda ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1,220 | 1,200 | - 1.64% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 95 | - 93 | - 2.11% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - duty soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [13] - Soda Ash Production Profit: The profit of heavy - duty soda ash by the north China ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and the profit by the east China co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [16] - Soda Ash Operating Rate and Production Capacity Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 89.12%. The weekly production of soda ash is 776,900 tons, including 430,100 tons of heavy - duty soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [19][22] - Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [23] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 113.40% [26] - Soda Ash Downstream Demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [29] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.6515 million tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Production (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [37]