沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Downstream transactions were average, and there was no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The SHFE nickel 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, within the range of 120,000 - 123,800. Pre - holiday position control is recommended [2]. - Stainless Steel: Spot stainless steel prices have declined. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, freight rates are strong, and nickel - iron prices are stable, with a firm cost line. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down. The stainless steel 2511 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel 3.1.1 Fundamentals - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Downstream transactions were average, and there was no significant increase in pre - holiday restocking demand. Nickel ore prices are firm, and due to the typhoon, mine loading and shipping may be delayed. Nickel - iron prices are stable, but nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. The destocking of stainless steel during the "Golden September and Silver October" period has slowed down. Although new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, the loading of ternary batteries is still decreasing, with limited increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. 3.1.2 Basis - The spot price is 122,450, and the basis is 1,070, indicating a bullish signal [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - LME inventory is 230,124, a decrease of 462. SHFE warehouse receipts are 25,153, an increase of 48, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.4 Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.1.6 Price Overview - On September 26, the SHFE nickel main contract was 121,380, a decrease of 1,610 from the previous day; the LME nickel was 15,155, a decrease of 85. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450, a decrease of 1,600 [13]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 26, the SHFE nickel inventory was 29,008 tons, with the futures inventory at 25,153 tons, a decrease of 826 tons and 690 tons respectively. The total inventory was 255,277 tons, a decrease of 414 tons [15][16]. 3.1.8 Import Cost - The import price is converted to 122,235 yuan/ton [28]. 3.2 Stainless Steel 3.2.1 Fundamentals - Spot stainless steel prices have declined. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, freight rates are strong, and nickel - iron prices are stable, with a firm cost line. The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down [5]. 3.2.2 Basis - The average stainless steel price is 13,962.5, and the basis is 1,122.5, indicating a bullish signal [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The futures warehouse receipts are 87,505, a decrease of 298, showing a neutral signal. On September 26, the Wuxi inventory was 588,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 281,400 tons, and the national inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons month - on - month. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 623,300 tons, an increase of 5,400 tons month - on - month [5][20][21]. 3.2.4 Market Chart - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, showing a neutral signal [5]. 3.2.5 Price Overview - On September 26, the stainless steel main contract was 12,840, a decrease of 90 from the previous day. The cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi was 13,950, unchanged from the previous day [13]. 3.3 Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On September 26, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [23]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost is 13,166, the scrap steel production cost is 13,512, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost is 16,867 [25]. 3.5 Multi - and Short - Term Factors - Bullish Factors: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and the cost line support at 120,000 [8]. - Bearish Factors: The domestic output continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [8].