沪锌期货早报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc (ZN2511) is expected to be weak with oscillations. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc decline in an oscillatory manner, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, but more short - position exits. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average, with weak moving - average support. Short - term indicators show a rise in KDJ but operating in the weak zone, and the trend indicator indicates a decrease in bullish power and an increase in bearish power, with the bearish side having an expanding advantage [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 21,990 yuan, and the basis was +10, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On September 26, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 42,775 tons compared to the previous day, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 990 tons to 57,573 tons [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On September 26, the total trading volume of zinc futures on the futures exchange was 194,248 lots, with a total trading value of 2.14006319 billion yuan. The open interest was 230,281 lots, a decrease of 8,181 lots [3]. 5. Spot Market Quotes - On September 26, the price of zinc ingots in Aoshang was 21,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,835 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From September 15 to September 25, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 149,500 tons to 135,400 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons compared to September 18 and 9,100 tons compared to September 22 [5]. 7. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On September 26, the total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange were 57,573 tons, an increase of 990 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 695 tons, in Jiangsu decreased by 99 tons, and in Tianjin increased by 394 tons [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On September 26, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 42,775 tons, with registered warrants of 30,625 tons and cancelled warrants of 12,150 tons, accounting for 28.40% [7]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 26, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic regions remained unchanged, with prices ranging from 16,530 yuan/ton to 16,730 yuan/ton [9]. 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 26, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Muchuanzhishi was 22,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 23,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton [13]. 11. Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [15]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 26, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in domestic regions ranged from 3,400 yuan/metal ton to 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 105 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 13. Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2511 on September 26, the total trading volume of members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 202,399 lots, a decrease of 39,621 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 87,482 lots, a decrease of 639 lots, and the total short - position volume was 86,815 lots, a decrease of 5,194 lots [18].