大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250929

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 29, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that due to the approaching long - holiday, cautious operation is recommended. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile trend today [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In August, official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7130 (+0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4]. - Basis: The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is - 29, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.4%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating, the crude oil price is fluctuating, the demand for agricultural film is in the peak season but still weaker than previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - Leverage and Risks: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - situation shows improved manufacturing sentiment. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increased demand for pipes and plastic weaving. The current PP delivery spot price is 6780 (+30), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [6]. - Basis: The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 113, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.6%, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is oscillating, the crude oil price is fluctuating, the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [6]. - Leverage and Risks: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7130 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 7159 (-10), the basis is - 29 (+10). The PE comprehensive factory warehouse is 509,000 tons, and the social inventory is 535,000 tons [9]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+30), the price of the 01 contract is 6893 (-5), the basis is - 113 (+35). The PP comprehensive factory warehouse is 520,000 tons, and the social inventory is 286,000 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% growth in 2025. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has also been increasing, with a planned 11.0% growth in 2025. The import dependence has been relatively low and stable, and the consumption growth rate has shown an upward trend in general [16].