大越期货沪铜周报-20250929

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose significantly, with the main Shanghai copper contract up 3.2%, closing at 82,470 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and force majeure at an Indonesian copper mine stimulated the price increase. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, spot trading is mainly for刚需, and copper inventories have decreased. [4] - The copper market will be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. [12] 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Last week, the main Shanghai copper contract rose 3.2% to 82,470 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and an Indonesian copper mine's force majeure stimulated the price increase. Domestically, downstream consumption willingness is average, and spot trading is mainly for刚需. LME copper inventories were 144,400 tons, slightly decreasing, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 7,035 tons to 98,779 tons. [4] b) Fundamentals - PMI: No detailed data provided. [10] - Supply - Demand Balance: The copper market will be in tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. [12][15] - Inventory: Exchange inventories are decreasing, and bonded area inventories remain low. [16][19] c) Market Structure - Processing Fees: Processing fees are at a low level. [22] - CFTC Position: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out. [24] - Futures - Spot Price Difference: No detailed data provided. [27] - Import Profit: No detailed data provided. [30] - Warehouse Receipts: No detailed data provided.