大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation where supply exceeds demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,800 - 73,960. In the future, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore and salt lake ends with limited decline, and the lack of willingness to purchase at the power battery end. [10][11] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 86,730 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August was 21,847 tons, and it is predicted that next month's import will be 19,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74%. [8][9] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 98,286 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.15%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,896 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - Cost: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 75,418 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.12%, resulting in a loss of 2,888 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 8,189 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - Other indicators: The fundamentals are neutral; on September 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 720 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral; the overall inventory is 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average, which is neutral; the MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish; the net position of the main players is short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish. [9] 3.2 Market Overview - The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 73,750 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. [14] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of 6% spodumene increased from 856 US dollars/ton to 857 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.12%. [14] - Production: The monthly production of lithium ore showed an increasing trend. For example, the monthly production of lithium ore in some months increased by 4.96% - 8.84%. [17] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 18.32%, and the import volume from Australia decreased by 50.47%. [17] - Supply - demand balance: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance showed a tight situation in some months, with demand exceeding production and import in some periods. [26] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The weekly production of some raw materials increased, and the monthly production also showed an overall increasing trend in some months. [17][29] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate increased by 57.79%, and the import volume from Chile increased by 81.83%. [17] - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate fluctuated. In some months, there was a surplus, while in others, there was a shortage. [34] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different periods. [37] - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide showed a certain degree of change, with a decrease in some months. [37] - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also fluctuated, with surpluses and shortages in different months. [39] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and imported lithium carbonate, showed different trends. For example, the production of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate resulted in losses, while the salt lake end had sufficient profit margins. [9][42] 3.7 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories. The overall inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but was still higher than the historical average. [9] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of lithium batteries showed a certain degree of stability, with some products remaining unchanged. [14] - Production and sales: The monthly production, shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends in different periods. [53] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors showed different trends for different types, with some increasing and some remaining stable. [59] - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of ternary precursors also showed different situations, with some products having profits and some having losses. [59] - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors fluctuated, with surpluses and shortages in different months. [62] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials showed different trends for different types, with some increasing and some remaining stable. [65] - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of ternary materials also showed different situations, with some products having profits and some having losses. [65] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed a certain degree of change. [68] 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable. [71] - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium also showed different situations, with some products having profits and some having losses. [71] - Production and inventory: The monthly production and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. [74][76] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, sales, and export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed an overall increasing trend, and the sales penetration rate also showed an upward trend. [79][80] - Other indicators: The zero - batch ratio, inventory warning index, and inventory index of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different periods. [83]