大越期货尿素早报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved, with the official PMI at 49.4 in August, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI at 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline compared to July. The crude oil price is fluctuating. The downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing, and the PP market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - For urea, the international price is strong (positive factor), while the domestic demand is weak and the daily production at the start - up is at a high level (negative factors). The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview and PP Analysis - Fundamentals: The manufacturing industry's prosperity has improved. China's export volume in August decreased compared to July. The crude oil price is fluctuating. The downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6780 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. With the approaching long - holiday, it is recommended to operate cautiously [4]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 113, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.6%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 52.0 million tons (- 3.0), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is fluctuating, the crude oil price is fluctuating, the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PP will fluctuate today [4]. Urea Factors - Positive Factors: The international price is strong [5]. - Negative Factors: The daily production at the start - up is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak [5]. - Main Logic: The marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1730 with no change; the price of Shandong spot is 1730 with no change; the price of Henan spot is 1740 with no change; the FOB China price is 3211 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 01 contract is 1669, down 5; the basis is 61, up 5; the price of UR05 is 1720, down 7; the price of UR09 is 1740, down 7 [6]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 7241, down 294; the UR comprehensive inventory is 1421; the UR manufacturer inventory is 957; the UR port inventory is 464 [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show different trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the production volume is 3425, the net import volume is 360, the apparent consumption is 3785, and the actual consumption is 3778.25 [9]. - In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].