Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The soda ash market has a fundamental surplus problem. Although the inventory of manufacturers has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium - term, the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern, and the market may face further pressure without actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is recommended to operate with a short - selling idea [1]. - The glass market has seen rumors about glass enterprises' meetings pushing up the market sentiment. The spot market transaction has become stronger before the festival, but the mid - stream inventory in some areas remains high. In the long - term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply dilemma [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - related prices and spreads -华北报价 rose from 1210 to 1220, an increase of 0.83%;华东报价 rose from 1290 to 1320, an increase of 2.33%;华中 and华南 quotes remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the 05 basis increased by 12.14% [1]. Soda ash - related prices and spreads -华北,华东,华中, and西北 quotes remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the 05 basis increased by 19.23% [1]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased from 87.29% to 85.53%, a decrease of 2.02%; the weekly soda ash output decreased from 76.11 tons to 74.57 tons, a decrease of 2.02%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real estate data - The new - construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - or short - side contradictions. Due to capital risk - aversion, the trading atmosphere is relatively cautious, and the rubber price may fluctuate and consolidate. In the future, the supply may be affected by weather conditions such as typhoons and the possible occurrence of La Nina phenomenon. The demand faces export pressure, and the domestic sales pressure may increase. It is expected that the short - term rubber price will fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 to 16,500 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber decreased by 0.34%, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged, the price of cup rubber increased by 0.20%, and the price of glue decreased by 0.90%. The prices of some raw materials in Hainan decreased [3]. Monthly spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 36.36%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 25.00% [3]. Fundamental data - In July, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed, with Thailand increasing by 1.61%, Indonesia increasing by 12.09%, and India decreasing by 2.17%. The production in China decreased slightly. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, the domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and the tire export quantity decreased by 5.46%. The total import quantity of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber in August increased by 4.76% [3]. Inventory changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased by 3.07%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [3]. Report on Logs 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The log market is in a volatile pattern, with a relatively low trading volume. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. Currently, the daily average shipment volume has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. Due to the poor willingness of buyers to take delivery and the suppression of the selling hedging disk on the market, there is a lack of strong upward momentum. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and spot prices - The prices of some log futures contracts fluctuated. The prices of spot logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign - market quotes also remained unchanged [4]. Cost: Import cost calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased slightly [4]. Supply: Monthly - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% [4]. Inventory: Main ports (weekly) - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 3.31%, with the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreasing [4]. Demand: Daily average outbound volume (weekly) - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 5%, with the volume in Shandong decreasing by 11% and that in Jiangsu increasing by 4% [4]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - From a fundamental perspective, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon will gradually become looser from September to October. The supply is expected to reach a high level in October, and then narrow in November. The increase in the cost of the flat - dry season in the southwest region brings positive sentiment to the market. In the short - term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,000 and 9,500 yuan per ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis of the main contract - The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis of some products changed. For example, the basis of (SI4210 benchmark) increased by 61.29% [5]. Monthly spreads - The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread decreasing by 100.00% [5]. Fundamental data (monthly) - The national and regional industrial silicon productions increased, with the national production increasing by 14.01%. The productions of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The industrial silicon export volume increased by 3.56% [5]. Inventory changes - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 11.63%, the inventory in Yunnan increased by 2.91%, and the social inventory remained unchanged [5]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On the fundamental side, the supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream components is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that the polysilicon price will mainly fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, the actual operating rate and production - reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis - The average prices of some polysilicon products remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 8.44% [6]. Futures prices and monthly spreads - The main contract price increased by 0.19%, and the spreads between some contracts changed, such as the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreasing by 130.00% [6]. Fundamental data (weekly) - The silicon wafer production decreased by 1.01%, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.32% [6]. Fundamental data (monthly) - The polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the import volume decreased by 9.63%, the export volume increased by 40.12%, and the net export volume increased by 94.25%. The silicon wafer production, import volume, export volume, and net export volume all increased [6]. Inventory changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 10.78%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.79% [6].
《特殊商品》日报-20250929
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-29 02:45