聚烯烃季报

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded under policy impetus and then traded based on the weak fundamental reality [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyolefin Q3 2025 Review - OPEC+ production increase expectations compressed the cost side, and new PP plant launches led to weak polyolefin performance. Weak basis and high warehouse receipts suppressed the market, but anti - involution expectations drove a rebound in late July [5] 3.2 Polyolefin 01 Contract New Capacity - PE New Capacity: Multiple plants were put into operation in 2025, with different expected increments for different contracts. For example, the 05 - contract expected increment was 258, and the 09 - contract expected increment was 210. Some projects were postponed, like Shandong New Era's project to Q1 2026 [7] - PP New Capacity: Many plants were also put into operation in 2025. The 05 - contract expected increment was 418, and the 09 - contract expected increment was 208. Attention should be paid to the 400,000 - ton new capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical [7] 3.3 PE Price Data - Quarterly Data: From August 1 to September 26, 2025, prices of various PE products changed. For example, linear North China prices decreased by 100 - 120, and upstream prices and profit margins also had corresponding changes [9] - Weekly Data: From September 19 to 26, 2025, prices and related indicators such as basis, monthly spreads, and profit margins of PE also changed [11] 3.4 PP Price Data - Quarterly Data: From August 1 to September 26, 2025, prices of PP products like拉丝 decreased, and basis, monthly spreads, and profit margins also changed significantly [13] - Weekly Data: From September 19 to 26, 2025, PP prices and related indicators showed certain fluctuations [15] 3.5 Olefin Spreads - Basis: The basis was weak, reflecting relatively large spot pressure [16][17] - Monthly Spreads: Monthly spreads showed weak oscillations [22] - Non - standard Ratios: The HD - LL spread weakened, and when HD injection - LL > 300, the probability of FD switching to HD production increased [29] 3.6 PE Supply - Maintenance gradually returned, and production and capacity utilization showed corresponding trends [36] 3.7 PP Supply - Recently, there were more unplanned maintenance, leading to a slight decline in production [43] 3.8 PE Profit - The weighted profit weakened [56] 3.9 PP Profit - The valuation was low [63] 3.10 PE Inventory - Inventory was being reduced [70] 3.11 PP Inventory - Upstream inventory was significantly reduced [77] 3.12 Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipt registration volume was at a high level year - on - year, and high warehouse receipts and a continuously weak basis reflected large spot pressure [84][85] 3.13 Global Spreads - The global ratio was low. China's PE ratio weakened, and PP exports declined [88][89] 3.14 Imports and Exports - PE: In 2025, the cumulative import volume was 8.0314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48%. July imports were expected to be low. - PP: The import volume in a certain period was 282,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.07%. Imports from September to October were expected to rise slightly [96] 3.15 PE Demand - Demand seasonally recovered but was weak year - on - year. Raw material inventory days were lower year - on - year [97][104] 3.16 PP Demand - Downstream demand was differentiated, with modified PP demand slightly increasing due to auto and home appliance policies. However, peak - season stocking did not show significant growth [111][118] 3.17 Downstream Profits - Downstream profits were recovering, and the year - on - year profit was neutral [126] 3.18 Downstream Demand - The Q2 total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.4% year - on - year, accelerating from Q1. In June, the plastics product export value increased by 7.2% year - on - year [133] 3.19 New Capacity Tracking - PE New Capacity: ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE plant was planned to be put into operation in September, and Guangxi Petrochemical was planned to start trial operation in September and be officially put into operation in mid - October. Shandong New Era was expected to start in Q1 2026 [143] - PP New Capacity: Daxie Petrochemical's second - phase 2 was expected to be put into operation in mid - September, and other plants also had their respective schedules [145]