氯碱四季报：SH：四季度关注下游补库节奏，需求仍存支撑v，供需矛盾较难解决，关注四季度需求边际变化

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Caustic Soda: In Q3, caustic soda showed a wide - range oscillation. After the non - aluminum restocking ended, the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The main downstream, alumina, had high inventory and low restocking willingness. However, due to the planned alumina capacity expansion in Q1 2025, there might be concentrated restocking in Q4 2024, limiting the downside space of caustic soda. The downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked [3]. - PVC: In Q3, the PVC market was in a continuous decline. The supply was at a high level with an obvious surplus, and the demand in the peak season was weak. Although exports alleviated some of the surplus pressure, the cost of raw materials provided bottom - level support. In Q4, the cost support should be focused on, and the downside space during the peak season is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - Price and Market Dynamics: The price of caustic soda fluctuated widely in Q3. Factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes in the main production areas, and the price of liquid chlorine affected the price. The market was worried about the subsequent supply return and the weakening of downstream demand [9]. - Supply: The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and Shandong's caustic soda plants continued to accumulate inventory in Q3. As of September 24, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China and Shandong increased compared with September 17 [22][28]. - Downstream Demand - Alumina: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina capacity to be put into production is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production increase of about 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year. In Q4 2024, there may be restocking due to the planned capacity expansion in Q1 2025 [30][33]. - Non - aluminum: The printing and dyeing operating rate increased seasonally, but the pre - holiday restocking has ended [52]. - Export: The export volume decreased in August, but the estimated export profit increased again in September [58]. PVC - Price and Market Dynamics: In Q3, the PVC futures and spot prices both declined. The supply - demand relationship lacked positive drivers, and the macro - atmosphere was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the market [65]. - Profit: The industry's profit declined quarter - on - quarter in Q3, with both the ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based production methods facing profit pressure [71]. - Supply: The production volume was high in Q3, and the overall operating rate decreased recently. Although there were many maintenance enterprises this week, some have gradually resumed production [81][87]. - Downstream Demand - Profiles and Pipes: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure, and the demand was weak. The real - estate industry, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices", continued to have a negative impact on demand [94]. - Real - Estate Data: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and new construction area showing weak performance [95]. - Inventory: The inventory increased in Q3, and the total inventory was at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period [102]. - External Market and Export: In August 2025, the PVC import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export window to Southeast Asia and India has opened [114][120].