《农产品》日报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may fall to seek support at 4,300 ringgit, and domestic palm oil futures may follow suit and fall to the range of 8,800 - 9,000 yuan. Overall, it maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of US soybean oil have not changed significantly. There is a seasonal supply pressure in the US, and domestic demand is weak after the holiday. Short - term supply exceeds demand [1]. Pork - The market supply rhythm is recovering, and the demand for large - weight pigs is increasing. The spot price is chaotic with some areas seeing larger declines. In the medium term, demand recovers slowly while supply recovers clearly, and the market may fluctuate slightly following the spot [3]. Corn - New - season corn in the Northeast is increasing in volume, and prices are weak. In North China, prices are under pressure. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a seasonal restocking demand. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5]. Meal - US soybeans lack substantial positive factors. China's domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the basis is supported before the holiday. The 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken in the short term [8]. Sugar - In the short term, raw sugar prices are dragged down by Brazilian production and demand. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern. The new domestic sugar season has started, and the domestic market is expected to be weak [10]. Cotton - The supply side has hedging pressure after new cotton acquisition, and the demand side has low confidence in the peak season. Domestic cotton prices may be under pressure in the short and medium term [11]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is high, and egg supply is sufficient. Demand may increase during the holidays, and egg prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - Prices: On September 26, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,470 yuan, up 0.36% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,162 yuan, down 0.37%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 24.19%. For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,230 yuan, up 0.65%, and the futures price of P2601 was 9,236 yuan, up 0.15%. The basis of P2601 increased by 88.46%. For rapeseed oil, the spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,240 yuan, up 1.99%, and the futures price of OI601 was 10,162 yuan, up 0.20%. The basis of OI601 increased by 176.47% [1]. - Spreads: From September 26 to 28, the soybean oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 9.92%, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 4.17%, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 7.44%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 4.11%, and the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 2.36%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread remained unchanged, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 2.56% [1]. Pork - Prices: On September 29, the price of the live - hog 2511 contract was 12,575 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day; the price of the 2601 contract was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The basis of the main contract increased by 66.67% [3]. - Indicators: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 7.37%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%, the self - breeding profit per head decreased by 203.23%, and the externally - purchased breeding profit decreased by 18.69% [3]. Corn - Prices: On September 29, the price of the corn 2511 contract was 2,178 yuan, up 0.60% from the previous day; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2,280 yuan, down 1.30%. The basis decreased by 29.66%, and the 11 - 3 spread increased by 22.73% [5]. - Starch: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2,480 yuan, up 0.24%. The basis decreased by 6.98%, and the 11 - 3 spread increased by 23.08%. The starch - corn spread decreased by 2.27%, and the Shandong starch profit increased by 60.98% [5]. Meal - Prices: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 2,940 yuan, and the futures price of M2601 also remained unchanged. The basis remained unchanged, and the spot basis quote remained the same. The Brazilian November - shipment - date crushing profit decreased by 70% [8]. - Spreads: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged, the spot oil - meal ratio remained unchanged, and the main - contract oil - meal ratio remained unchanged. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread remained unchanged [8]. Sugar - Futures: On September 29, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day; the price of the 2605 contract was 5,442 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 16.35 cents/pound, up 0.37% [10]. - Spot and Import: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The Nanning basis increased by 3.68%, and the Kunming basis increased by 3.37%. The quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian sugar increased, and the corresponding spreads with Nanning prices also changed [10]. - Industry Indicators: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 12.87%, the national industrial inventory increased by 5.24%, and the sugar import volume increased by 160% [10]. Cotton - Futures: On September 29, the price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day; the price of the 2601 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 66.33 cents/pound, up 0.09% [11]. - Spot and Spreads: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.27%, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.28%. The 3128B - 01 and 3128B - 05 spreads increased, and the CC Index: 3128B - FC Index:M: 1% spread decreased by 3.32% [11]. - Industry Indicators: The commercial inventory decreased by 20.6%, the industrial inventory decreased by 3.4%, the import volume increased by 40%, the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year, and the yarn and fabric inventory days decreased [11]. Eggs - Prices: On September 29, the price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,036 yuan/500KG, down 1.30% from the previous day; the price of the 10 - contract was 2,940 yuan/500KG, down 1.38%. The egg - producing area price was 3.47 yuan/jin, down 3.76% [14]. - Indicators: The egg - chicken chick price remained unchanged, the culled - chicken price decreased by 0.64%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 7.95%, and the breeding profit increased by 135.13% [14] [15].