大越期货原油早报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Iraq's northern Kurdish region resumed crude oil transportation through the pipeline to Turkey on Saturday for the first time in two and a half years, with 18 - 19万桶/日 of crude oil to be restored [3][5]. - OPEC+ may approve another increase in oil production at the October 5 meeting, with a daily increase of at least 13.7万桶 [3]. - The US government faces a shutdown risk as Trump will meet with congressional leaders to discuss government funding before the September 30 deadline [3][5]. - EU countries have not reached a unified consensus on banning Russian oil imports [3][6]. - The short - term geopolitical conflict has increased, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term. The oil price is expected to fluctuate, with short - term trading in the 490 - 500 range, and long - term long positions are advised to consider partial profit - taking [3][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Crude oil 2511: Fundamentally neutral; basis shows spot premium over futures, which is bullish; inventory data is mostly bullish; the 20 - day moving average is flat with price above, neutral;主力 positions in WTI and Brent are long and increasing, bullish [3]. - Futures prices: Brent crude settled at 69.22, up 0.64 (0.93%); WTI at 65.72, up 0.74 (1.14%); SC at 489.1, up 0.20 (0.04%); Oman at 70.53, down 0.08 (-0.11%) [7]. - Spot prices: UK Brent Dtd at 72.09, up 1.50 (2.12%); WTI at 65.72, up 0.74 (1.14%); Oman at 70.88, up 0.05 (0.07%); Shengli at 66.72, up 0.63 (0.95%); Dubai at 70.71, down 0.09 (-0.13%) [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump will meet with congressional leaders to avoid a government shutdown. Democrats and Republicans have different views on the short - term spending bill [5]. - Slovakia refuses to quickly stop importing Russian oil due to technical obstacles and limited alternative transportation routes [5]. - Iraq's semi - autonomous Kurdistan region resumed crude oil exports on Saturday [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: None mentioned. - Bearish factors: EU's non - unified view on Russian oil ban, US government shutdown risk, OPEC+ considering further production increase [6]. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflict increase, medium - long - term supply increase risk [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - API inventory: Decreased by 382.1万桶 in the week ending September 19 [3][10]. - EIA inventory: Decreased by 60.7万桶 in the week ending September 19, against an expected increase of 23.5万桶; Cushing region inventory increased by 17.7万桶 in the same week [3][12]. - Shanghai crude oil futures inventory: Remained at 540.1万桶 as of September 26 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI crude: As of September 16, the net long position increased [3][16]. - Brent crude: As of September 16, the net long position increased [3][18].