大越期货菜粕早报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Short - term demand is in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2440. The market is neutral. The basis is 115, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The main short positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From September 18th to 26th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The rapeseed meal futures bottomed out and rebounded, the spot was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased significantly. The price of aquatic fish rebounded slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [13][18][23]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide detailed position data analysis other than the information that the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing out [9].