大越期货豆粕早报-20250929

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2601): Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is awaiting the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations and harvest weather. In China, high September soybean imports and spot price discounts may lead to a return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. - Soybeans (A2511): Forecast to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. The US soybean market is restricted by South American harvests and good growing conditions. In China, domestic soybeans have a cost - performance advantage, but high imports and expected new - season production increases may suppress prices [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No detailed content provided in the given text 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term bearish sentiment for US soybeans. The US soybean market will continue to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further developments [13]. - China's September soybean imports remain high, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories are at a relatively high level. The soybean market will likely return to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced pig - farming profits in China have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, increased demand for soybean meal in August and September, along with uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, will keep the soybean meal market oscillating [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish: Slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, relatively low oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and uncertain US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish: High September imports of soybeans in China and expected high yields from South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand for soybeans [15]. - Bearish: High yields of Brazilian soybeans and expected increases in new - season domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, harvest areas, production, and total supply generally increased. Ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio also showed an upward trend [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, harvest areas, production, and imports increased. Ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio fluctuated [33]. 5. Position Data - No detailed content provided in the given text 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Conditions - Price Trends: Soybean meal futures declined, while spot prices remained stable, with a slight narrowing of the spot discount. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [16][18][23]. - Inventory Status: Oil - mill soybean inventories decreased from a high level, while soybean meal inventories continued to increase. Oil - mill unfulfilled contracts decreased from a high level [47][49]. - Import and Export: US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. China's September soybean imports decreased from a high level but increased overall year - on - year [44][46]. - Pig Farming: Pig inventories increased, sow inventories were flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices declined, and piglet prices remained weak. Pig - farming profits deteriorated recently [55][57][61].