大越期货钢矿周报-20250929

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, steel and ore prices rose first and then fell, showing a weak trend. The weak expectation of future demand was the main factor for the overall decline [61]. - From a fundamental perspective, the situation of screw and coil was not as bad as the price trend. Although the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased slightly, the apparent demand for rebar increased. The weak expectation of future demand was the main reason for the price decline [61]. - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" jointly issued by five departments did not clearly cut production capacity but admitted the current reduction in steel demand, which hit market confidence. The performance in the traditional "Golden September" season confirmed this pessimistic expectation, with prices rising and then falling [61]. - Iron ore was affected by the decrease in molten iron production and the increase in port inventory, fluctuating with screw and coil and difficult to strengthen independently. In the later stage, it is necessary to closely track the inventory depletion speed and the quality of terminal demand, pay attention to the introduction of policies on the implementation measures for steel industry capacity replacement, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the festival [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - One - week data changes: PB powder price decreased from 799 yuan/wet ton to 785 yuan/wet ton; Ba - mixed powder price decreased from 828 yuan/wet ton to 820 yuan/wet ton. PB powder spot landing profit increased from - 14.01 yuan/wet ton to - 10.71 yuan/wet ton, and Ba - mixed powder spot landing profit increased from - 5.81 yuan/wet ton to 0.73 yuan/wet ton. Australian shipments to China decreased by 223.9 tons to 1512.8 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 33 tons to 836.3 tons. Imported iron ore port inventory increased by 169 tons to 14550.68 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 358.1 tons to 2750.4 tons. The port throughput increased by 0.38 tons to 351.41 tons. The daily average port trading volume of iron ore increased by 9.1 tons to 94.9 tons, and the daily average molten iron production increased by 1.34 tons to 242.36 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 0.86% to 58.01% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis - One - week data changes: The Shanghai rebar price remained unchanged at 3260 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3370 yuan/ton. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47% to 84.45%, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 3.27% to 67.36%. The rebar blast furnace profit decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 14 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 49 yuan/ton. The rebar electric furnace profit increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 128 yuan/ton. The weekly rebar output increased by 0.01 tons to 206.46 tons, and the weekly hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.3 tons to 324.19 tons [31]. - Inventory and consumption data: The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 13.32 tons to 471.89 tons, and the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 2.11 tons to 298.8 tons. The weekly enterprise inventory of rebar decreased by 0.66 tons to 164.41 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.4 tons to 81.7 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 10.41 tons to 220.44 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons to 321.68 tons. The building material trading volume decreased by 12776 tons to 101068 tons [33]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - Production data: The report presents historical data on the actual weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Chinese steel enterprises from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. - Profit data: It shows the historical data on the average daily profit of electric - furnace building steel in China from 2019 - 2025 [49]. - Inventory data: The report includes historical data on the weekly social and enterprise inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil in China from 2019 - 2025 [50][52]. - Trading volume data: It provides historical data on the daily trading volume of mainstream building - steel traders in China from 2019 - 2025 [54]. - Apparent consumption data: The report shows the historical data on the weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [55]. - Export data: It presents the monthly export volume of Chinese steel from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - Real - estate data: The report includes historical data on the cumulative year - on - year changes in investment completion, sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of real - estate development enterprises in China from 1999 - 2025 [57][58]. - Manufacturing PMI data: It shows the monthly manufacturing PMI value from 2019 - 2025 [60].